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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AXNT20 KNHC 051027
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">627 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
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Based on
0600 UTC surface analysis and
satellite imagery through
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">0940 UTC.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES...
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Five is centered near 33.3N 64.9W at 0900 UTC,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">or 70 nm N of Bermuda, moving NE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass indicted
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds to 20 kt along 31N near 67W, with seas estimated to range
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 7-8 ft. The depression is expected to continue moving NE
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and gradually accelerate over the next few days, increasing to a
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">minimal tropical storm by this afternoon. Conditions across the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">discussion area south of T.D. Five will improve quickly this
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES...
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is off the coast of western
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Africa with axis along 20W-21W from 03N-19N, moving west at 10
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-12N
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">east of 20W to the coast.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 37W from 02N-
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">21N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is noted in IR
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery and wave diagnostics. Widely scattered moderate convection
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is noted ahead of the wave from 06.5-13N between 37W and 40W.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W from 01N-
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">21N, is moving west at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is found S of 05N near the ITCZ.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">along the Lesser Antilles near 63W from 04N-22N, moving west at
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 18N16W to
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">11N28W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 09N38W to 07N50W. Scattered
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-12N between
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">41W-51W.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO...
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Surface ridge prevails across the basin, extending from the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Straits of Florida to 25N95W. A persistent surface trough is
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted over the north/central Gulf extending along about 30N.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail south of the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">trough to 28N, and offshore of the SE Louisiana coast from 26-28N.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted over the Bay of Campeche, while gentle to moderate southerly
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds prevail over the northwest Gulf.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">High pressure will persist along 24N-25N through the middle of
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">W of 90W on Sun night and persist through the middle of next
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">week as high pressure shifts eastward.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA...
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">affecting the basin.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An active monsoon trough combined with a tropical wave are
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">supporting scattered moderate convection across Central America
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and NW Colombia, affecting the waters south of 14N between 75W-
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">prevailing across the central and southern portions of the basin,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">while gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic along 25N-26N into the Bahamas will maintain fresh to
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">fresh winds through Wed night.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and the tropical waves moving across the basin.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A weak surface trough extends from NE Florida offshore along 30N
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to near 75W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">south of the trough to 28N. Scattered moderate convection also
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">continues from the SE Florida coast to the NW Bahamas from 24.5N
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to 27N. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 38N32W.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">For the forecast, the ridge will persist along 25N through this
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">evening, then gradually lift northward to along 28N by mid week.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The weak trough will linger off the northern Florida coast
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through this afternoon, then drift N and dissipate by Mon.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Farther east, fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas persist
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">off the northwest coast of Africa, mainly north of 15N and east
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 25W, between the high pressure over the Azores and lower
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">pressure over the Sahara. Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">flow persist east of 55W with 6 to 8 ft seas in NW swell. No
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">significant convection persists north of 20N.
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Stripling