TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT and TROPICAL STORM GONZALO
Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT43 KNHC 230242
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">reconnaissance data.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">lies near the various consensus models.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HCCA guidance.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key Messages
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical storm watch has been issued.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in flash flooding.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Cangialosi
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">TROPICAL STORM GONZALO
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
1. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations
indicate that an area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the
accompanying shower and thunderstorm activity is still poorly
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be
required for portions of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana tonight
or on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">940
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TWDAT
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">805 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
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Based on
1800 UTC surface analysis and
satellite imagery through
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SPECIAL FEATURES...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.9N 45.0W at 22/2100
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">UTC or 960 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 43W and 46W. Gonzalo is forecast to continue moving
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">west, at a gradually faster pace, through the end of the week,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">before it may begin to curve to the WNW. On this track, the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">system will move into the offshore forecast zones east of the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Windward Islands Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Saturday. Strengthening is forecast, and Gonzalo is likely to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">become a hurricane by Thu afternoon. Please read the latest NHC
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Low pressure has developed in the Central Gulf of Mexico near
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">25N89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted over the eastern Gulf south of 22N extending along the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan Channel in association to this system. Conditions are
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">favorable to this low to develop further, and a tropical
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">depression is likely to form in the next day or two as the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">system moves WNW at 9 kt. This low has a high chance of tropical
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">formation within the next two to five days. Please refer to the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for further information.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES...
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, from 20N southward,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted from 05N to 09N between 22W and 31W.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">With high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">steering flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">motion of the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to 25 knots.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm on the east side of the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">wave axis from 06N to 09N.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 18N southward,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of the wave axis.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 16N to 22N.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 092N30W to 10N37W. The
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 07N58W. Aside from convection noted
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 28W and 37W.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico is
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">gradually becoming better defined as indicated by surface
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">observations, satellite imagery and aircraft reconnaissance data.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A middle-level inverted trough support this low with upper-level
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">diffluence supporting scattered moderate convection S of 28N E
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 91W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">at about 9 kt.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Surface observations show fresh to locally strong SE winds
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">already over portions of the NE gulf while model guidance
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">indicate the continuation of at least fresh SE winds for the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">eastern half of the basin through Sat. Scattered to numerous
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">heavy showers are forecast for most of the gulf through the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">weekend.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA...
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Heavy showers and tstms are across Cuba and adjacent waters
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">being supported by a broad area of low pressure located in the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">central Gulf of Mexico.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">With the Bermuda and Azores high in place over the central
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate to fresh winds will prevail for the eastern and central
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">basin. These winds will be fresh to strong in the south-central
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Caribbean, specifically along the coast and adjacent waters of
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Colombia, due to lower pressure and local terrain effects.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.9N 45.0W 1000 mb at 5 PM EDT
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo will move to 10.0N 46.8W Thu morning, strengthen to a
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">hurricane near 10.1N 49.2W Thu afternoon, 10.3N 51.8W Fri
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">morning, 10.8N 54.6W Fri afternoon, 11.3N 57.6W Sat morning, and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">weaken to a tropical storm near 12.1N 60.8W Sat afternoon.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it moves to the west
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through Sun afternoon. The center of Gonzalo would approach the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">See Special Features section above for more information on
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Otherwise, see the tropical waves
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">section for information on showers and tstms over Hispaniola and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">adjacent waters.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN...
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scattered showers and tstms prevail over the Bahamas as well as
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Turks and Caicos associated with a broad area of low pressure in
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Gulf of Mexico. The remainder basin N of 20N is under the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">influence of the Azores and Bermuda high, which is supporting
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">fair weather.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The extension of the Bermuda and Azores high into the SW
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic waters will support pulses of fresh to locally strong
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">builds across the western Atlantic.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">KONARIK/RAMOS
Sincerely,
Bob Lain
Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.
As Agents Only
16651 Ronan
Houston, TX 77060
Main: 281-582-9200 DO Tel: 281-582-1231 Fax: 281-582-9222 Mbl: 281-924-2146
hou@moranshipping.com
blain@moranshipping.com
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