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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT44 KNHC 070851
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT4
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">center. Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">depression. The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">earlier ASCAT data.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt. The
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">depression is expected to move generally northward during the next
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States. After
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">States. While the track models agree on the general scenario,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">being slower than the other guidance. Also, the ECMWF and GFS
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the forecast.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Mexico. The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">show significant deepening of the central pressure. The updated NHC
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hours.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the next couple of days.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this system.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 07/0900Z 18.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Berg