NOAA Hurricane
Tropical Depression # 3
785
WTNT43 KNHC 020849
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Satellite data, Mexican radar data from Sabancuy, and nearby surface
observations indicate that the depression has become a little better
organized and has strengthened slightly since the previous advisory.
Radar data indicate a mass of convection has developed north of and
over the low-level center, and a broken curved band has also formed
in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity has been increased
to 30 kt based on a 0201 UTC ASCAT-A overpass that showed a couple
of 27-kt vectors located in the northeastern quadrant outside of the
most active convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this
morning.
The initial motion is westward or 270/02 kt. The latest 00Z model
guidance continues to show the depression remaining embedded within
the larger Central American gyre for the next few days, with the
gyre gradually contracting around the depression, with the two
entities merging into one system by 72 hours. Similar to last
night, tonight's model runs have again abandoned the development of
a secondary low east of the depression and moving it northward
toward the U. S Gulf coast. This may be due in part to the lack of
Mexican and Central American upper-air data at 0000 UTC, except for
the Belize sounding. But the global and regional models are in
overall in good agreement on the cyclone remaining trapped in a
break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the
depression. By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to
drop southward out of the southern plains and into the ridge
weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly
northward on days 4 and 5. Until that time, the cyclone is
expected to meander over the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3
days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme
southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and
brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on days 2 and 3. It
should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone
near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3 due to land
interaction and the possible formation of a secondary cyclone.
Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low while the
cyclone remains trapped in the Bay of Campeche during the next few
days, only slow strengthening is expected due to possible land
interaction and intrusions of dry air caused by southwesterly
downslope flow coming off of the mountains in the state of Chiapas,
which already appears to be underway based on satellite and radar
imagery. After the cyclone starts moving northward, increasing
southerly shear is expected to inhibit any significant or rapid
strengthening. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that
the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate
completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and HWRF
models.
Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity
forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the
current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.
Key Messages:
1. Deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of
Guatemala and El Salvador. The depression is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras
and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 19.6N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.8N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.7N 91.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT33 KNHC 021144
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCPAT3
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">BULLETIN
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">700 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CAMPECHE...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">----------------------------------------------
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">LOCATION...19.6N 92.4W
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WATCHES AND WARNINGS
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">--------------------
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">None.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">next within 24 to 36 hours.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">products issued by your national meteorological service.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">----------------------
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. The
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (5 km/h). The
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">depression is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">later today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to investigate the system later this morning.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">----------------------
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mudslides.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">coast within the warning area tonight.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NEXT ADVISORY
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Pasch