<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">882
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AXNT20 KNHC 032324
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TWDAT
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2300 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
Based on
1800 UTC surface analysis and
satellite imagery through
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2300 UTC.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal is weakening very slowly while moving over land near
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. It is centered near 18.3N 91.8W at
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">03/2100 UTC moving toward the SE or 135 degrees at 3 kt. A turn
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">toward the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast track, the center will move over eastern Mexico through
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Thursday. Then, the center of Cristobal is forecast to move back
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Estimated minimal central pressure
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds speed is 45 kt with gusts to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">55 kt. Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Friday as it moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rounds of heavy rain. The rains could lead to additional life-
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mountainous terrain.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gyre circulation (i.e. CAG), that has been bringing heavy
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rainfall is expected through Fri night. As Cristobal interacts
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, abundant tropical
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moisture in a southwesterly flow will continue to impact SE
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico and northern Central America. Rounds of heavy rain are
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected in El Salvador, with additional 10-15 inches of rain,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mainly from Thu afternoon through early Sat. Belize and Honduras
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. Rainfall in all of these areas
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read bulletins and forecasts issued by your local or
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">national meteorological service, for more details.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A tropical wave is near 30W, S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Convection is limited near the wave axis.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A second tropical wave is along 52W/53W, S of 17N, moving W at
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">10 to 15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some convective
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">activity over French Guiana and Suriname. The wave shows up
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">reasonably well in the TPW animation, and 700 mb streamline
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">analysis.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Guinea, Africa near 11N15W and continues to 10N30W. The ITCZ
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">extends 09N34W to 07N42W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong convection is from 05N to 07N between 15W and 22W.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal, and heavy rainfall across southern
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico. During the last 24 hours, ending at 8 am this morning,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Weather Service in Mexico reported rainfall amounts of 328.9
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mm (13 inches) in Campeche, followed by 222.4 mm (9 inches) in
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tabasco and 220.8 mm (9 inches) in Chiapas.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a 1018 mb high
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">pressure over the SE CONUS is producing an area of moderate to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong easterly winds across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 25N
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with seas of 8-10 ft roughly between 87W and 95W. These marine
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">conditions will persist on Thu. As Cristobal moves back into the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf waters by Fri, winds and seas will continue to increase
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">across the Gulf region. Expect swells from Cristobal to begin
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">impacting the NW and north-central waters on Sat. After Cristobal
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moves inland in the general area of the north-central Gulf, moderate
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the region
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through Sun night.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">periphery of the Bermuda high and the remnants of a frontal
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">boundary is supporting shower and thunderstorms over most of the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Florida Peninsula. Another round of convection, including
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">possible heavy rain is forecast for South Florida on Thu, with
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the risk of urban flooding.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico for the next few days. Please, see the Special Features
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">section for more details. This is also forecast to produce
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">at least Sat.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong SE
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">As tropical cyclone Cristóbal moves back into the Gulf of Mexico
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">waters, the pressure gradient will tighten between Cristobal and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Atlantic high pressure. As a result, strong southeast winds
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Yucatan Peninsula through Sat evening. Winds may reach gale
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">force in and near the Yucatan Channel Fri through most of Sat
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">along with building seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">continue over the central Caribbean through early Sat, then
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Mon.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce some convective
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">activity over Cuba. A band of showers and thunderstorms over the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SW Caribbean could be associated with northward movement of the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">eastern Pacific monsoon trough into the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">prevail.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN...
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A couple of tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 25N60W to the central
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Bahamas. This front is forecast to slowly dissipate through
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">early Thu. High pressure north of the front will support moderate
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">before diminishing slightly Sun through Mon. Some convective
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">activity is associated with the front. Farther E, a cold front
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">crosses the Canary Islands and continues SW, then W along 24N30W
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to 28N42W. Patches of low level clouds are along the frontal
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">boundary.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GR