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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Weather Outlook
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Puerto Rico.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">monitor the progress of this disturbance.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. A broad area of low pressure centered near the eastern tip of Cuba
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Significant development of this system is not expected while it
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days due
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to strong upper-level winds and interaction with land. Regardless of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">eastern tropical Atlantic.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Zelinsky