Tropical Depression 8
U.S. Rainfall Potential
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<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT23 KNHC 232045
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 23/2100Z
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 23/2100Z
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 90.3W
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 91.9W
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.6W
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.5N 95.3W
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.6N 97.0W
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 98.5W...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 90.7W
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECASTER BEVEN
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<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion
112
WTNT43 KNHC 232047
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
Satellite imagery indicates that the depression continues to become
better organized, with the center near the eastern edge of a large
and broadly curved convective area, with a second curved band to
the east. Several subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have increased to 35 kt since the last advisory.
However, surface observations, scatterometer data, and data from an
earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission show a large
area of 25-30 kt winds south and east of the center, and no 35-kt
winds to justify an upgrade at this time. Thus, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression this evening, and the
current expectation is that they will find it is a tropical storm.
The center meandered a bit today, possibly due to reformation.
However, the system now seems to have resumed a west-northwestward
motion of 285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United
States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models
forecast this ridge to build somewhat during the next several days.
This should cause the depression to turn westward by 36-48 h
and south of west after about 60 h. The track guidance remains in
good agreement with that scenario, although there has been a
slight southward shift in the guidance envelope and the
consensus models. The new NHC forecast track is also shifted
a little southward and has the center making landfall along the
Texas coast in about 48 h.
The depression is in an environment of light shear with good
anticyclonic outflow, and it will be over warm sea surface
temperatures until landfall. This should allow steady
strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased
to show a peak intensity of 50 kt just before landfall, followed by
steady weakening and eventually dissipation after landfall. The new
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus.
The aircraft and scatterometer data show that the strongest winds
in the cyclone are currently occurring about 70-90 n mi from the
center. This has caused the forecast wind radii to be expanded,
and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is needed for portions of
the Texas coast.
Key Messages
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it is likely to
bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast,
where a tropical storm warning has been issued.
2. The tropical cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These
rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate
river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 26.1N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.5N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.5N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.6N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 27.5N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Gonzalo
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<span-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 232041
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCDAT2
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 9
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to capture the maximum winds. Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt. Structure-wise, deep convection has
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to give up its fight quite yet.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air. The statistical
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">after it passes the Windward Islands. Based on the lower initial
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours. Either way, Gonzalo's small
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">cannot be reflected in the official forecast. There is more
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">trough. Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">5.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt. There has been
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 48-60 hours. Some of the models shifted northward a bit on
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Florida State Superensemble. However, users should not focus
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key Messages
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">be when it moves across the islands.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">by local officials.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT 23/2100Z 9.8N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 60H 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 72H 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 96H 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Berg
Sincerely,
Bob Lain
Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.
As Agents Only
16651 Ronan
Houston, TX 77060
Main: 281-582-9200 DO Tel: 281-582-1231 Fax: 281-582-9222 Mbl: 281-924-2146
hou@moranshipping.com
blain@moranshipping.com
www.moranshipping.com
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