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Disturbance 22 Advisory #2<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
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Valid: 09:00 PM CDT Tuesday August 26, 2014
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Current Location: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">26.8N, 93.7W
Geographic Reference: 185 NM east of Corpus Christi Texas
Movement: West at 9 kts
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 20 percent
Forecast Confidence: Average
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Chances From Our Previous Forecast
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We have lowered development chances from 25 to 20 percent due to the current poor organization and lack of associated thunderstorms.
Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Disturbance 22 remains broad and poorly organized. Much of the associated thunderstorms have dissipated. What remains is located far to the north onshore, or far to the east. This disturbance is expected to move to the west at a steady speed. On this track,
we expect the system to move over the Texas coast late Wednesday or early Thursday. The exact location where the system moves onshore is not important because it is likely to be a weak system. The effects will extend well away from the center.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Thunderstorm activity is likely to fluctuate quite a bit before the disturbance moves inland. Organization could improve some but if the thunderstorms do not increase, development chances could be lowered again.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts On Land
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Texas and Louisiana Coast: Squalls are likely to cause locally heavy rains tomorrow and Thursday. Localized flooding is possible.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Offshore
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Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could produce wind gusts up to 45 kts during the next 36 to 48 hours.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologist: Jim Palmer
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">26.80N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">93.70W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">20 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Disturbance
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.
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