Freeport

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Disturbance 22 Advisory #7<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277"> <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Thursday August 28, 2014

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Current Location: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">26.3N, 96.3W
Geographic Reference: 45 NM east of South Padre Island
Movement: Nearly Stationary
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 25 percent
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Chances From Our Previous Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
We have increased the chance of development based upon the improved organization this morning. We have also relocated the center to the east, which will result in the system moving onshore late today or early tomorrow.

Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Disturbance 22 has been relocated to the east this morning based upon satellite and radar. A slow westward drift is expected during the next 24 hours, which should bring the system into southern Texas. During the past few hours, there has been an increase in squalls near the center. If current trends continue, a depression or a weak tropical storm could form later today. We estimate the chance of development to be 25 percent. Regardless as to whether or not the system becomes a depression or a storm, the impacts are expected to be the same.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts On Land <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Texas Coast: Scattered showers/thunderstorms over the next 24-36 hours. Several inches of rain could fall in some areas.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Offshore <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could produce wind gusts as high as 45 kts through the next 24 hours off the Texas coast.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologist: Derek Ortt / Fred Schmude

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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">26.20N

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">96.30W

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">25 kts

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Disturbance

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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved. <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">