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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT41 KNHC 172033
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT1
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 2
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weather flow station
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">offshore.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">during the next day or so.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tightly clustered track guidance.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Galveston areas.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 17/2100Z 29.3N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Brown
U.S. RAINFALL POTENTIAL