<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 120255
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT2
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the previous advisory.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is still along the far western side of the envelope, but the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">models.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">along and east of the track of the system.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">by Friday morning.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Brown