HURRICANE DORIAN
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT45 KNHC 030854
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT5
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 40
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">while moving little. The eyewall has become a little less
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">should respond to these changes by beginning to move
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">consensus.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over the coastline.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in shelter.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">follow advice given by local emergency officials.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">emergency officials.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coast during the middle and latter part of the week.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 03/0900Z 26.9N 78.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Pasch
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<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030909
TCDAT2
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery
indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming
better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the
scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the
northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the
center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter
elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on
Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain
260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be
westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the
southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent
west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center
redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast
track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model
TVCN.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 36-48 hours
before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the
broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification
from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
IVCN consensus model.
The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 23.5N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE # 1 AND # 2
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located just north of Grand Bahama Island.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better defined. The
associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of
days while the system moves northward, and a tropical depression
could form by Thursday. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
3. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of
days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Blake