Tropical Depression Four Advisory #16<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
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Valid: 05:00 PM EDT Saturday August 23, 2014
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Current Position: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">21.8N, 72.3W
Geographical Reference: Near the Turks and Caicos
Movement: Northwest at 11 kts
Organization Trend: Slowly Increasing
Our Estimated Maximum Winds: 30 kts gusting to 40 kts
Latest National Hurricane Center Maximum Winds: 35 gusting to 40 kts
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 110 NM
Forecast Confidence: Very low
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Changes From Our Previous Forecast
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The latest aircraft data indicate that a well defined center has formed a little to the northeast of our previous position. The data also indicate a slower motion than we previously analyzed. Therefore, we are expecting a slightly slower motion over the next
2 to 3 days.
Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
There remains a high degree of uncertainty with regards to the track forecast. Models are split between a landfall in Florida and a track a couple of hundred miles to the east of Florida through the northwest Bahamas. We continue to favor a motion to the east
of Florida. However, only a slight deviation to the west of our track could result in strong winds spreading over coastal parts of central Florida. In the 5 to 7 day time period, we are forecasting a track east of the Carolinas, though confidence also remains
low in this part of the forecast.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">There is no real change to the intensity forecast. Conditions favor steady intensification through the next couple of days. Our forecast is for the depression to become a tropical storm by tomorrow morning.
In 48 hours, it is forecast to become a hurricane.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts on land
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Puerto Rico and Hispaniola: Heavy rain and flooding are likely to continue for Puerto Rico into this evening, and for Hispaniola through early tomorrow. Wind gusts to tropical storm force remain possible.
Bahamas: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical storm conditions are expected tomorrow through early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are likely for the northwest Bahamas Monday afternoon
through early Tuesday. Power outages are likely along with some minor structural damage.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected impacts Offshore
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NW Bahamas area: Late Sunday through Tuesday, tropical storm force winds are likely within 85 NM of the center. Hurricane conditions are forecast to develop near the center Monday afternoon
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM EDT (9 PM CDT).
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Tim Lynch
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Forecast Confidence: Low
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Hurricane Severity Index
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Fcst Hour
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Valid
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Gusts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Size
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Intensity
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Total
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Sat Aug 23
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">21.80N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">72.30W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">30 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">40 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Depression
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">12
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5AM EDT Sun Aug 24
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">23.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">74.00W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">35 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">45 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Storm
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">24
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Sun Aug 24
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">24.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">75.50W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">45 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">55 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Storm
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">3
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">36
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5AM EDT Mon Aug 25
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">25.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">76.50W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">55 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">70 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Storm
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">3
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">48
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Mon Aug 25
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">26.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">77.50W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">65 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">80 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">3
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">8
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">60
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5AM EDT Tue Aug 26
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">27.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">78.30W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">70 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">85 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">3
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">8
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">72
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Tue Aug 26
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">28.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">78.00W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">75 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">90 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">6
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">11
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">96
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Wed Aug 27
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">30.50N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">76.40W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">80 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">95 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">7
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">12
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">120
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Thu Aug 28
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">32.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">74.40W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">80 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">95 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">7
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">12
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">144
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Fri Aug 29
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">34.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">71.80W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">80 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">95 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">7
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">12
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">168
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5PM EDT Sat Aug 30
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">36.50N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">68.60W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">75 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">90 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category 1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">5
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">6
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">11
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">*Note: There is a 75% chance this storm's center will track within the yellow "cone of uncertainty" depicted above. The width of this cone is based on average track errors over the last 5 years. Hurricane-force
winds, a significant storm surge and heavy rainfall can often extend outside this uncertainty cone.<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.
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