NOAA Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Nate
Presently Houston / Galveston / Texas City / Freeport all open to vessel traffic. No USCG COTP notices for these ports at this time. Swells expected to move into our area late Saturday and Sunday. Possible delays for pilots boarding
and departing vessel traffic at pilot stations.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT41 KNHC 060843
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT1
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 8
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">An Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">central pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">surface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">cyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Honduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Honduras. Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">temporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period. Once Nate moves inland
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">will dissipate by the end of the forecast period.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Nate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Central America and a developing subtropical ridge over the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">western Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">general north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">speed for the next 2 days. After that time, Nate should be on the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northeast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">track forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">for the next 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">envelope.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">KEY MESSAGES:
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Belize through tonight.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">possible.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">or Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">effect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">given by local officials.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Avila
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