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Tropical Depression Five Advisory #17<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
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Valid: 04:00 PM CDT Monday September 01, 2014
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Current Position: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">20.1N, 93.7W
Geographic Reference: 261 NM east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico
Max Winds: 30 kts gusting to 40 kts
Movement: West-northwest at 11 kts
Organizational Trend: Increasing Slowly
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max predicted Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 50 NM
Forecast Confidence: Average
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Changes From Our Previous Forecast
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Disturbance 24 has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Five by the National Hurricane Center. There are no large changes from our previous forecast.
Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Tropical Depression Five is located in the Bay of Campeche. It is expected to move west-northwestward. Landfall is forecast to occur in the general vicinity of Tampico, Mexico late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. We think the depression will have
enough time over water to become a tropical storm, given the favorable environmental conditions. The system is forecast to peak as a 40 kts tropical storm by the time it makes landfall in about 30 to 36 hours.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Some of the outer squalls and the 22 kts winds on the north side could extend as far north as the lease areas offshore southern Texas and to the Texas/Mexico border, but the heaviest activity is expected to
remain to the south of these areas.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Offshore
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Bay of Campeche: Scattered to numerous squalls will continue to spread over the Bay of Campeche, and will last into Tuesday for locations between 90W-94W longitude. The strongest squalls could produce wind gusts of 45 kts to 50 kts.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Western Gulf of Mexico:
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Squalls are possible by early tomorrow for the deepwater lease areas offshore southern Texas. However, we expect the heaviest squalls to remain well south of most of the lease areas. West of 90W longitude,
sustained winds as high as 25 kts to 30 kts are likely to extend as far north as 26N latitude late today through tomorrow. These winds will be caused by the pressure gradient on the north side of the depression rather than the depression itself.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Onshore
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Yucatan Peninsula: Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms could cause some localized street flooding through today.
East Mexico: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Heavy rainfall is likely for eastern Mexico from tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologist: Andrew Hagen
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Forecast Confidence: Average
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Hurricane Severity Index
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Fcst Hour
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Valid
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Gusts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Size
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Intensity
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Total
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">4PM CDT Mon Sep 01
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">20.10N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">93.70W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">30 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">40 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Depression
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">12
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">4AM CDT Tue Sep 02
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">21.30N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">95.20W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">30 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">40 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Depression
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">24
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">4PM CDT Tue Sep 02
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">22.00N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">96.70W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">35 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">45 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Storm
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">32
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">12AM CDT Wed Sep 03
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">22.30N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">97.80W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">40 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">50 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Storm
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">3
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">36
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">4AM CDT Wed Sep 03
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">22.50N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">98.30W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">35 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">45 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Storm
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">1
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">2
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">48
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">4PM CDT Wed Sep 03
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">22.70N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">99.80W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">20 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">30 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Remnant Low
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">0
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">*Note: There is a 75% chance this storm's center will track within the yellow "cone of uncertainty" depicted above. The width of this cone is based on average track errors over the last 5 years. Hurricane-force
winds, a significant storm surge and heavy rainfall can often extend outside this uncertainty cone.<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.
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