Freeport

 

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three

<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Home   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Public Adv   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Fcst Adv   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Discussion   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Wind Probs   Graphics   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Archive  

<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">U.S. Watch/Warning   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Local Products   <span-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;display:none"> 

Wind Speed
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Probabilities

Experimental Arrival
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Time of Winds

Wind
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">History

Warnings/Cone
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone
Static Images

Warnings and
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Surface Wind

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

U.S. Rainfall
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Potential

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> 

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><span style="color:red;"><br>JavaScript/Active Scripting must be enabled to view other versions of this maps.</span>

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.

 

 

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">

<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Archived Outlooks

<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">GIS Shapefiles

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><span style='font-color:red;'>For best viewing experience, please enable JavaScript for your browser.</span>

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Eastern North Pacific

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

<span-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> 

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;display:none"> 

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;display:none"> 

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;display:none"> 

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30, with special outlooks issued at any time as conditions warrant. The graphic displays all currently active tropical cyclones, and disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential over the next 48 hours. Mousing over the symbol for each weather system displays details for that system; clicking on disturbance symbols or numbers toggles a zoomed view on or off. For additional NHC products on active tropical cyclones, click on the tropical cyclone symbols.

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> 

Tropical Weather Outlook Text<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Tropical Weather Discussion

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM   Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017   For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:   The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret, located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.   The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located a couple hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.   &&   Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.   Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.   $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Bret

<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Home   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Public Adv   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Fcst Adv   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Discussion   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Wind Probs   Graphics   <span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Archive   <span-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;display:none"> 

Wind Speed
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Probabilities

Experimental Arrival
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Time of Winds

Wind
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">History

Warnings/Cone
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone
Static Images

Warnings and
<span-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Surface Wind

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> 

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><span style="color:red;"><br>JavaScript/Active Scripting must be enabled to view other versions of this maps.</span>

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.