Hurricane Harvey
NOAA
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. Harvey is moving
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weekend.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is expected to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">miles (220 km).
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane was 950
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">mb (28.05 inches).
Port of Houston
08/24
1230 Pilots boarding sailing vessel traffic only
1230 Pilots completed boarding all inbound vessels this afternoon and last of the inbound vessel traffic are all about to complete docking as of 2200/24th
1300 COTP issued MSIB // Port condition change to YANKEE
1400 COPT issues MSIB 10-17 // change port condition to YANKEE
08/25
0630 Pilots suspended all inbound and outbound traffic due to approaching Hurricane Harvey
Port of Texas City / Galveston
08/24
1300 Pilots boarding outbound traffic only // Inbound traffic suspended
1400 COPT issues MSIB 10-17 // change port condition to YANKEE
Port of Freeport
08/23
1400 COTP issued MSIB 09-17 // Port condition changed to XRAY
08/24
1200 Pilots suspended boarding inbound traffic and boarding sailing vessels only
1400 COPT issues MSIB 10-17 // change port condition to YANKEE
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black">The four USCG Port Conditions are as follows. Other conditions/restrictions apply; please refer directly to the appropriate Hurricane Plan for the local port:
WHISKEY<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black">: Gale force winds are expected at the entrance to the port within 72 hours.
X-RAY<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black">: Gale force winds are expected at the entrance to the port within 48 hours.
YANKEE<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black">: Gale force winds are expected at the entrance to the port within 24 hours.
This condition is also used after the storm passes, because vessel traffic control measures will still be in effect.
ZULU<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black">: Gale force winds are expected at the entrance to the
port within 12 hours.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT44 KNHC 250847
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT4
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 20
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The satellite presentation has improved during the past several
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hours with an intermittent eye feature surrounded by a ring of very
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">deep convection. There are various cyclonically curved convective
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">bands primarily to the north of the eye and the outflow is fair.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes penetrated the eye
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">various times during the past several hours, and the most
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">significant data were a flight-level peak wind of 103 knots, and a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">peak SFMR surface wind of 88 kt. The central pressure dropped
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was adjusted
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">upward to 90 kt. Another reconnaissance plane will be in the eye of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Harvey shortly.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Since Harvey is embedded within light shear and moving over warm
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">waters, additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">about 24 hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is forecast but since
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">a good portion of the circulation will remain over water, the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weakening process could be slower than normal.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Radar and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Harvey is moving toward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is on the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">western edge of a persistent area of high pressure over the eastern
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Gulf of Mexico, and this pattern will maintain the current hurricane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">motion until landfall. Once Harvey is inland over Texas, the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">begin to meander, prolonging the flooding conditions for several
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">days. The track guidance between now and landfall is very consistent
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and there is high confidence in the track forecast. After landfall,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the track models show large variability and the confidence is low.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">In any case, NHC forecast depicts a slow moving tropical cyclone
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">near or over Texas for the next five days.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Once again, it is very critical that users not focus on the exact
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">areas should be preparing for the possibility of major
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">be completed this morning, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas later today.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricanes.gov.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from today through next
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">information on the flooding hazard.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">warning areas.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 25/0900Z 25.9N 95.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 25/1800Z 26.9N 96.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 26/0600Z 28.0N 97.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 27/0600Z 28.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 28/0600Z 28.3N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 29/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 30/0600Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Avila