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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT41 KNHC 051447
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 5
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The cloud pattern associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">increased in organization after the last advisory, with the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">formation of a ragged central convective feature and outer banding
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in the northeastern semicircle. In addition, data from the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Colombian radar at San Andres showed a partial eyewall, and surface
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">observations from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, included a pressure of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1001 mb outside of the center. Based on these data, the initial
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensity has been increased to 35 kt, and the depression has been
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The center of Nate is now inland over northeastern Nicaragua, and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">little change in strength is expected until the center moves over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that, a combination of warm
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">sea surface temperatures and light shear should allow for at least
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">steady strengthening. However, the guidance is producing mixed
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">signals despite a favorable-looking environment. The Rapid
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Intensification Index of the SHIPS model is showing high chances of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">rapid intensification, with better than a 50 percent chance of 25
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">kt of strengthening in the next 24 h and nearly a 50 percent chance
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of 65 kt of strengthening in 72 h. On the other side, the GFS and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Canadian models show only modest development and keep the cyclone
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">as a tropical storm until it reaches the northern Gulf coast.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Given the environment, the intensity forecast leans towards the high
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">end of the guidance envelope and calls for Nate to become a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane in about 48 h and reach the northern Gulf Coast as a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The initial motion is 325/8. A combination of a large cyclonic gyre
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with an increase in forward speed during the next 72 h. While the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance is in better agreement on the direction that Nate should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">move, there remains disagreement on the speed despite an overall
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast track is similar to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the direction of the previous track, but shows a faster forward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">speed that has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in about 36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 h.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">recurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">westerlies.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">KEY MESSAGES:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Belize through Friday night.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing. However, it is too early
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">advice given by local officials.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 05/1500Z 14.3N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Beven