No USCG COTP Orders for Houston / Galveston / Texas City / Freeport and weather report indicates vessel traffic will not be suspended due to high winds and rough seas.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 12
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">west of the center. The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial intensity of 70 kt. Since the plane left, the satellite
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">presentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">value in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">approaching Nate.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to be a little bit stronger just before landfall. After landfall,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hours or sooner.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">force Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hours. After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">from the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">consensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">KEY MESSAGES:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">instructions given by local officials.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">life and property should be rushed to completion in these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">areas.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">for flash flooding in these areas.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">locations.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 07/0900Z 24.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Avila
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