Freeport

NOAA Hurricane Beryl

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 060854

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   4

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Deep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">continued to become better organized overnight.  An earlier AMSR2

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">microwave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">pinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">channels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">0715 UTC.  Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">that time, there is enough convective organization to increase the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The cyclone has another 18-24 hour within very low vertical wind

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shear conditions and over SSTS of 26-27 degrees Celsius.  These

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">favorable conditions suggest that the tiny hurricane is likely to

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensify further today.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">additional strengthening and is at the upper-end of the intensity

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance, but I would not be too surprised if the compact hurricane

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reaches a slightly higher peak intensity than indicated below. By

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 15 kt, and

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">it is expected to be greater than 20 kt shortly after that time.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">This should cause the very small tropical cyclone to quickly

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weaken, however as mentioned in the Key Messages below there is

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">greater uncertainty than usual regarding Beryl's intensity

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast.  Although the updated NHC forecast shows Beryl

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm it is highly

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">possible that the system will have degenerated into an open trough

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">by that time. Regardless of the system's status at 72 h, it is

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains to

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of the Lesser Antilles Sunday and Monday.

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt.  The track guidance

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is in good agreement taking Beryl west-northwestward to the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">south of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic.  There

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">has been little overall change in the latest dynamical guidance and

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope closest to

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the latest ECMWF and HFIP correct consensus models.

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">predict are possible during the next couple of days.

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">as a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">local weather office for more information.

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT  06/0900Z 10.6N  45.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H  06/1800Z 11.0N  46.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H  07/0600Z 11.7N  48.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H  07/1800Z 12.7N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H  08/0600Z 13.6N  54.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H  09/0600Z 15.4N  61.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Brown

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