NOAA Hurricane Beryl
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Initial Wind Field<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">
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3 days
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 4
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Deep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">continued to become better organized overnight. An earlier AMSR2
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">microwave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">pinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">channels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">0715 UTC. Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">that time, there is enough convective organization to increase the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The cyclone has another 18-24 hour within very low vertical wind
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shear conditions and over SSTS of 26-27 degrees Celsius. These
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">favorable conditions suggest that the tiny hurricane is likely to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensify further today. The NHC intensity forecast calls for
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">additional strengthening and is at the upper-end of the intensity
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance, but I would not be too surprised if the compact hurricane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reaches a slightly higher peak intensity than indicated below. By
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 15 kt, and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">it is expected to be greater than 20 kt shortly after that time.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">This should cause the very small tropical cyclone to quickly
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weaken, however as mentioned in the Key Messages below there is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">greater uncertainty than usual regarding Beryl's intensity
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast. Although the updated NHC forecast shows Beryl
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm it is highly
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">possible that the system will have degenerated into an open trough
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">by that time. Regardless of the system's status at 72 h, it is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of the Lesser Antilles Sunday and Monday.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. The track guidance
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is in good agreement taking Beryl west-northwestward to the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">south of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. There
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">has been little overall change in the latest dynamical guidance and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope closest to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the latest ECMWF and HFIP correct consensus models.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">predict are possible during the next couple of days.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">as a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">local weather office for more information.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 06/0900Z 10.6N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 06/1800Z 11.0N 46.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 07/0600Z 11.7N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 07/1800Z 12.7N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 08/0600Z 13.6N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 09/0600Z 15.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Brown
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