Freeport

Tropical Storm Beryl Update

<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

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000

WTNT42 KNHC 080853

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018

500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

 

A burst of deep convection developed over the eastern portion of

Beryl's circulation just after the release of the previous

advisory.  The convective burst has expanded overnight and

the earlier exposed center of the cyclone is now located near

the northwestern edge of the convective cluster.  Subjective Dvorak

intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged, and the initial

intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to Beryl and should

provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this morning.

 

The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous

advisory. Westerly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over

Beryl during the next 24 to 36 h, and the cyclone will be moving

into a drier mid-level environment.  As a result, Beryl is expected

to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the

eastern Caribbean Sea.  However, the system will likely produce

strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward

Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few

days.

 

The tropical storm is moving quickly west-northwestward or 290/17

kt. Beryl should continue on this general heading with some

increase in forward speed as it is steered by a strong mid-level

ridge to the north.  The track guidance remains in fairly good

agreement but there has been some increase in the cross track

spread at 24 and 36 h with the GFS and HWRF along the southern

edge of the guidance and the ECMWF bracketing the northern side of

the envelope.  The NHC track is in the middle of the envelope,

close to the various consensus models, and in best agreement with

the HFIP corrected consensus.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions

of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts

from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today

or tonight.

 

2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low

pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce

strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder

of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and

Hispaniola through Tuesday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  08/0900Z 13.7N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

12H  08/1800Z 14.7N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

24H  09/0600Z 15.9N  62.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

36H  09/1800Z 17.4N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

48H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Brown