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Notices

 Year

 Month

 Port Updates

SubjectDatePriority
Freeport Ship Channel 10/31/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/31/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/30/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/29/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/28/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/27/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/26/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/25/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/24/2018 Normal
NOAA Hurricane Center // Hurricane Willa 10/23/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/23/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/22/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/21/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/20/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/19/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/18/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/17/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/16/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/15/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/14/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/13/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/12/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/11/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/10/2018 Normal
NOAA - US Gulf // Hurricane Michael 10/10/2018 Normal
NOAA US Gulf // Hurricane Michael 10/09/2018 Normal
NOAA - US Gulf // Hurricane Michael 10/09/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/09/2018 Normal
NOAA Hurricane Central US Gulf – Hurricane Michael 10/08/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/08/2018 Normal
NOAA - US Gulf // Tropical Storm Michael10/08/2018 Normal
US Gulf - Tropical Storm Michael 10/07/2018 Normal
US Gulf - Tropical Depression 14 10/07/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/07/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/06/2018 Normal
US Gulf - Tropical Disturbance 10/06/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/05/2018 Normal
US Gulf Tropical Disturbance 10/05/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/04/2018 Normal
FW: Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/03/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/02/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/01/2018 Normal

 Daily Port Update

Subject:US Gulf - Tropical Storm Michael
Date:Sunday, October 07, 2018
Priority:Normal
Notice:

NOAA // US Gulf - Tropical Storm Michael

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT44 KNHC 072101

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT4

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   5

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">closer to the convection.  The Air Force aircraft has measured peak

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">40-45 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">increased to 45 kt.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">highly uncertain 020/3 kt.  The overall forecast reasoning has not

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">changed much since the previous advisory.  Although there could be

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">United States.  A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">differences remain.  The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial position.  The latter portion of the track forecast is again

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance spread.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear.  The

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">while the system moves over warm waters.  This should allow for

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to hurricane strength within the next couple of days.  It should

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb.  The new NHC

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of Mexico during the next couple of days.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm warnings are in effect.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">given by local officials.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT  07/2100Z 19.2N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H  08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H  08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H  09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H  11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H  12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Brown

Notice posted on Sunday, October 07, 2018

Disclaimer
For quality assurance purposes please note well that while the above information is regularly vetted for accuracy it is not intended to replace the local knowledge or expertise pertaining to port conditions of our marine operations personnel. Port précis should always be verified by contacting the corresponding marine department of a particular location for the most up-to-date information.