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SubjectDatePriority
Freeport Area Update04/20/2012 Normal
Freeport Area Update04/18/2012 Normal
Freeport Area Update04/13/2012 Normal
RE: Freeport Area Update04/11/2012 Normal

 Daily Port Update

Subject:NOAA - US Gulf // Hurricane Michael
Date:Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Priority:Normal
Notice:



000 AXNT20 KNHC 090603 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   The center of Hurricane Michael at 09/0600 UTC is near 23.6N 85.7W, or about 730 km/395 nm S of Panama City in Florida, or about 685 km/370 nm S of Apalachicola in Florida. MICHAEL is moving NNW, or 345 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots. Numerous strong rain showers are from 22N to 25N between 82W and 87W, to the NW of NW Cuba. Scattered moderate to strong rain showers are on the southern side of Cuba, from 21N to the northern side of Cuba between 81W and 83W. Scattered moderate to strong rain showers are within 140 nm to the north of the eastern coastal sections of Honduras. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rain showers are elsewhere from Honduras northward, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, to Florida, between 80W and 88W. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours or so. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along parts of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, in the Florida Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials. A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life- threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging winds also will extend inland across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. It is possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into sections of Georgia and South Carolina. Hurricane conditions will continue in parts of western Cuba through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIATCMAT4.   The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 09/0300 UTC is near 32.9N 44.6W. LESLIE is moving SE, or 135 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. LESLIE is forecast to move southeastward, and reach the level of a category one hurricane in about 48 hours or so. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIATCMAT3.   A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 10N28W, about several hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 14N southward. The low pressure center is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development. It is likely that a tropical depression may form within a day or two, while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Strong upper level winds are expected to limit further development later in the week. The chance for development into a tropical cyclone is high. Scattered moderate to strong rain showers are within 120 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, and from 12N to 14N between 25W and 30W. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.   ...TROPICAL WAVES...   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 19N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are from 11N to 15N between 40W and 45W.   A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 19N southward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the north of Hispaniola. Rain showers have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last six hours or so. Scattered to numerous strong rain showers are in northern sections of Colombia, from 10N northward.   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 16N20W, toward the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 10N28W, to 07N34W, and 06N38W. The ITCZ is along 10N/11N between 46W and 60W. Scattered moderate to strong rain showers are from 04N to 12N between 09W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are elsewhere from 03N to 16N from 36W eastward.   GULF OF MEXICO...   Hurricane Michael is moving into the SE corner of the area. The forecast for MICHAEL is for it to move northward during the next 48 hours. Expect heavy rainfall amounts, tropical storm-force and hurricane-force wind speeds, building sea heights, and storm surge along and near the continued northward path of MICHAEL.   A narrow upper level trough extends from the area that is near the Yucatan Channel, northwestward, to SE Louisiana. An upper level ridge is to the east of the trough, and an upper level ridge is to the west of the trough.   Hurricane Michael near 23.2N 85.3W 970 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will move to 24.7N 85.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 86.3W Tue evening, 29.1N 85.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.4N 84.4W Wed evening, and inland to 35.9N 77.3W Thu evening. Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 41.5N 63.8W late Fri, and continue to 47.8N 46.0W Sat. Conditions should improve by the end of the week as Michael speeds off to the N and NE of the area, potentially dragging a cold front or frontal trough down S of 31N in its wake.   CARIBBEAN SEA...   Hurricane Michael near 23.2N 85.3W 970 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will move to 24.7N 85.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 86.3W Tue evening, 29.1N 85.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.4N 84.4W Wed evening, and inland to 35.9N 77.3W Thu evening. Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 41.5N 63.8W late Fri, and continue to 47.8N 46.0W Sat. Expect moderate trades across the rest of the Caribbean Sea, diminishing toward the weekend as the surface pressure gradient weakens even more.   Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 67W eastward, associated with the Atlantic Ocean 19N51W-to-12N55W trough. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, between 67W and 81W, and away from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea with Hurricane Michael.   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N71W. A narrow NW-to-SE oriented trough extends northwestward for about 500 nm. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the area that runs from 17N in the Caribbean Sea, across Hispaniola, to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 65W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers also are from 26N to 30N between 70W and 77W.   An upper level trough passes through 30N27W to 24N44W to 19N51W and 12N55W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the trough from 45W eastward, and within 660 nm on either side of the trough elsewhere. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the areas of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 15N between 52W and 65W. Rain showers are possible elsewhere in the areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow.   An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 280 nm to the west of Morocco. A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 80 nm to the WSW of the Madeira Archipelago. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 28N21W and 25N23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are from 30N to 34N between 10W and 16W.   A surface trough is along 29N46W 26N50W 24N55W. This trough is to the south of the broad surface cyclonic wind flow that is associated with T.S. LESLIE. Isolated moderate rain showers are from 24N northward between 30W and 60W.   Hurricane Michael near 23.2N 85.3W 970 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will move to 24.7N 85.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 86.3W Tue evening, 29.1N 85.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.4N 84.4W Wed evening, and inland to 35.9N 77.3W Thu evening. Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 41.5N 63.8W late Fri, and continue to the 47.8N 46.0W Sat. A surface trough will move W-NW through the Bahamas through tonight, moving W of the area thereafter. The surface pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds and higher seas near the northern part of the trough.   For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine   $$ MT
Notice posted on Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Disclaimer
For quality assurance purposes please note well that while the above information is regularly vetted for accuracy it is not intended to replace the local knowledge or expertise pertaining to port conditions of our marine operations personnel. Port précis should always be verified by contacting the corresponding marine department of a particular location for the most up-to-date information.