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SubjectDatePriority
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/18/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/17/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/16/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/15/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/14/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/13/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/12/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/11/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/10/2018 Normal
NOAA - US Gulf // Hurricane Michael 10/10/2018 Normal
NOAA US Gulf // Hurricane Michael 10/09/2018 Normal
NOAA - US Gulf // Hurricane Michael 10/09/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/09/2018 Normal
NOAA Hurricane Central US Gulf – Hurricane Michael 10/08/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/08/2018 Normal
NOAA - US Gulf // Tropical Storm Michael10/08/2018 Normal
US Gulf - Tropical Storm Michael 10/07/2018 Normal
US Gulf - Tropical Depression 14 10/07/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/07/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/06/2018 Normal
US Gulf - Tropical Disturbance 10/06/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/05/2018 Normal
US Gulf Tropical Disturbance 10/05/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/04/2018 Normal
FW: Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/03/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/02/2018 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/01/2018 Normal

 Daily Port Update

Subject:NOAA - US Gulf // Hurricane Michael
Date:Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Priority:Normal
Notice:

Hurricane Michael

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT44 KNHC 100854

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT4

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  15

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">several hours.  The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range.  In

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb.  Based on

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus.  The cirrus outflow

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The initial motion is 360/11.  Michael is embedded in the flow

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">across the central United States.  These features should cause the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in forward speed.  Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">United States between 12-48 h.  The forecast guidance remains

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">vertical shear.  After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.  Extratropical

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this should be complete just after the 48 h point.  The cyclone

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northeastward over the north Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">trends.  Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">be rushed to completion.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">13 feet of inundation is possible.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds.  Dangerous hurricane-

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Michael moves inland.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">areas.

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT  10/0900Z 28.3N  86.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.7W  125 KT 145 MPH

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H  11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H  11/1800Z 34.4N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H  12/0600Z 36.8N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H  13/0600Z 43.5N  59.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H  14/0600Z 49.5N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H  15/0600Z 52.0N  17.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> 

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$

<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Beven

Notice posted on Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Disclaimer
For quality assurance purposes please note well that while the above information is regularly vetted for accuracy it is not intended to replace the local knowledge or expertise pertaining to port conditions of our marine operations personnel. Port précis should always be verified by contacting the corresponding marine department of a particular location for the most up-to-date information.