Hurricane Michael
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT44 KNHC 100854
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 15
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">across the central United States. These features should cause the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">be rushed to completion.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">13 feet of inundation is possible.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane-
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Michael moves inland.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">areas.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Beven