Hurricane Willa in eastern Pacific is expected to make landfall this evening. Possible heavy rainfall in South Texas and Texas Gulf Coast later this week.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTPZ44 KNHC 231503
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDEP4
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 14
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Willa's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and an outer eyewall. Recent microwave data and reports from an
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">concentric eyewalls are present. The reconnaissance aircraft just
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">completed its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">previously estimated. Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The plane should provide a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">more accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">mission during the new few hours.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Willa is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt. A
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">peninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tonight. The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">advisory.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Although Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">southwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane approaches the coast. Despite the forecast decrease in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">through landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">rainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and southwestern Mexico. After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">path of Willa.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the coast of west- central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds will also
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">as Willa moves inland.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">west-central Mexico.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Brown
Bob Lain
Moran-Gulf Shipping Agencies
16651 Ronan
Houston, TX 77060
Main: 281-582-9200 DO Tel: 281-582-1231 Fax: 281-582-9222 Mbl: 281-924-2146
blain@moranshipping.com
www.moranshipping.com
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