Freeport

Disturbance 19 Advisory #6<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277"> <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
Valid: 08:00 AM EDT Thursday August 21, 2014

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Current Position: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">14.8N, 57.9W
Geographical Reference: 185 NM east of The Lesser Antilles
Movement: West-northwest at 10 kts
Organization Trend: Slowly Increasing
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 40 percent
Chance of Development Within 7 Days: 70 percent
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 85 NM
Forecast Confidence: Below average

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Changes From Our Previous Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
As the storm continues to organize and is better interpreted by the model guidance, the data overall indicates a continued eastward trend in the track. We have shifted our forecast to the east of our previous advisory to reflect the new and evolving data. The system will likely miss the Gulf of Mexico.

Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Disturbance 19 is on a trajectory to cross over the central and northern Lesser Antilles tomorrow. The system could become a weak tropical storm or tropical depression between now and tomorrow. Regardless of development, the overall impacts will be the same (see impacts below). The system' s west-northwest forward motion is expected to continue through the weekend bringing the system near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Beyond then, the system is expected to continue on a west-northwest to northwest trajectory towards the Bahamas by Sunday. By Tuesday, depending on the position of the ridge over the southeast, the system could be steered into Florida or move north and miss Florida. In the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame, the system could be near the Carolinas or heading out to sea.
Expected Impacts on land
Windward, Leeward and Virgin Islands: The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and localized flooding as it moves through the area late Thursday through late Friday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible. These impacts will occur regardless as to whether or not the system becomes a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Puerto Rico and Hispaniola: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Heavy rain and flooding are likely for Hispaniola and possible for Puerto Rico Friday night through early Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected impacts Offshore <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
East Caribbean: Heavy squalls are likely to move into the eastern Caribbean by early Friday.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">NW Bahamas/NW Caribbean/SE Gulf of Mexico: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical storm force winds are likely within 85 NM of the center starting in about 4 to 5 days for the NW Caribbean or NW Bahamas. Any impacts to the southeast Gulf of Mexico are 6 days away.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued at 4 PM AST (3 PM CDT).

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologist: Cameron Self

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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">14.80N

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">57.90W

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">25 kts

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Disturbance

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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved. <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">