Disturbance 19 Advisory #8<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
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Valid: 10:00 PM EDT Thursday August 21, 2014
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Current Position: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">17.6N, 60.0W
Geographical Reference: 100 NM east of The Leeward Islands
Movement: West-northwest at 17 kts
Organization Trend: Slowly Increasing
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 70 percent
Chance of Development Within 7 Days: 85 percent
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 110 NM
Forecast Confidence: Low
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Changes From Our Previous Forecast
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We have increased the chance of development somewhat compared to the previous advisory.
Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
There has been little change in terms of organization during the past 6 hours. However, the latest computer models are indicating more intensification than they previously were. Therefore, we have increased the chance of development. It should be mentioned
that the National Hurricane Center could upgrade this to a tropical storm at any time as there is a low level circulation and winds of tropical storm force. Once the system moves into the Bahamas, it likely will intensify at a steady rate as environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable. While it is more likely to remain a tropical storm, we cannot rule out the possibility of this becoming a hurricane.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">There is a high level of uncertainty with regards to the eventual track. The most likely scenario is that the system will slow in the Bahamas and turn to the north and then to the northeast. There are some models
that indicate a track toward the Florida Peninsula. This is the less likely scenario at this time but one that cannot be completely ruled out. It is even less likely that the system would move into the Gulf of Mexico. If the system did move into the Gulf,
it would be the eastern Gulf that would be at the greatest risk.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts on land
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Windward, Leeward and Virgin Islands: Heavy rains are moving through the Lesser Antilles now. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible tonight along with localized flooding. These conditions should persist for 12 to 24 hours.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Puerto Rico and Hispaniola:
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Heavy rain and flooding are likely for Hispaniola and Puerto Rico Friday night through early Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected impacts Offshore
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East Caribbean: Heavy squalls are likely to move into the eastern Caribbean tonight.
NW Bahamas: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical storm force winds are likely within 85 NM of the center. These could expand to about 110 NM in 5 to 7 days.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued at 4 AM AST (3 AM CDT).
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Andrew Hagen
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">17.60N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">60.00W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">35 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Disturbance
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.
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