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Disturbance 24 Advisory #14<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
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Valid: 09:00 PM CDT Sunday August 31, 2014
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Current Position: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">18.8N, 90.2W
Geographic Reference: 40 NM southeast of Campeche, Mexico
Movement: West-northwest at 10 kts
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 50 percent
Chance of Development Within 5 Days: 50 percent
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Changes From Our Previous Forecast
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We have increased development chances over the next 48 hours to 50 percent. The center has shifted a little to the south. For now, we have not changed our track forecast.
Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Disturbance 24 continues to move across the Yucatan. Though model guidance continues to be unimpressive with this disturbance, systems in the Bay of Campeche can sometimes develop more quickly than what the guidance predicts. Therefore, we are giving this system
a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm while over the Bay of Campeche over the next few days. The disturbance should emerge over the Bay of Campeche overnight tonight and then track west-northwest toward the Tampico area. Landfall
will likely be on Wednesday morning as either a broad low, depression, or weak tropical storm. The best chance of development will be on Tuesday when the system reaches the western Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds of 22 kts to 30 kts will likely extend as
far north as 26N latitude between 90W longitude and the lower Texas coast on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Offshore
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Bay of Campeche: Scattered to numerous squalls will continue to spread out over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and will last into early Tuesday for locations between 90W-94W longitude in the Bay of Campeche. The strongest squalls could produce wind gusts
to 50 kts.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Western Gulf of Mexico:
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Squalls are possible by early Tuesday for the deepwater lease areas offshore southern Texas. However, we expect the heaviest squalls to remain well south of most of the lease areas. West of 90W longitude, sustained
winds as high as 25 kts to 30 kts are likely to extend as far north as 26N latitude late Monday through late Tuesday. These winds will be caused by the gradient on the north side of the broad low rather than the disturbance itself.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Onshore
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Yucatan Peninsula and Belize: Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms could cause some localized street flooding through early tomorrow.
East Mexico: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Heavy rainfall is likely for eastern Mexico Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologists: Cameron Self / Amanda Robinson
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">18.80N
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">90.20W
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">25 kts
<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Disturbance
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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">© 2014 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.
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