Freeport

Disturbance 24 Advisory #15<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277"> <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#001277">
Valid: 07:00 AM CDT Monday September 01, 2014

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Current Position: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">19.6N, 92.1W
Geographic Reference: 40 NM southeast of Campeche, Mexico
Movement: West-northwest at 11 kts
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 60 percent
Chance of Development Within 5 Days: 60 percent
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Changes From Our Previous Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
We have increased development chances over the next 48 hours to 60 percent.

Our Forecast <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Disturbance 24 has emerged into the Bay of Campeche, with most of the associated squalls remaining over the Yucatan Peninsula. Organization has changed little overnight. As the center moves further away from land, the system is expected to consolidate and a depression could form later today or tonight. Model guidance continues to predict a broad area of low pressure will move into the Tampico area anywhere from tomorrow evening through Wednesday morning. If it can organize quickly enough, there is a chance it could reach tropical storm strength before moving inland. The highest chance of development will be tomorrow, when the system reaches the western Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds of 22 kts to 30 kts will likely extend as far north as 26N latitude between 90W longitude and the lower Texas coast tomorrow and into Wednesday.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Offshore <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Bay of Campeche: Scattered to numerous squalls will continue to spread out over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and will last into early Tuesday for locations between 90W-94W longitude in the Bay of Campeche. The strongest squalls could produce wind gusts to 50 kts.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Western Gulf of Mexico: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Squalls are possible by early tomorrow for the deepwater lease areas offshore southern Texas. However, we expect the heaviest squalls to remain well south of most of the lease areas. West of 90W longitude, sustained winds as high as 25 kts to 30 kts are likely to extend as far north as 26N latitude late today through tomorrow. These winds will be caused by the pressure gradient on the north side of the broad low rather than the disturbance itself.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Expected Impacts Onshore <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize: Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms could cause some localized street flooding through this afternoon.

East Mexico: <span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Heavy rainfall is likely for Eastern Mexico from tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Meteorologists: Jim Palmer / Fred Schmude

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<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lat.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Lon.

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Max Sustained Winds

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Category

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">19.60N

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">92.10W

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">25 kts

<span-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Tropical Disturbance

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