Freeport

Tropical Weather Outlook Text<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Weather Outlook

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. A broad low pressure area located over the northeastern Gulf of

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida,

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical-

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">storm- or hurricane-force winds across portions of the Louisiana,

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week, and interests

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">there should closely monitor its progress.  In addition, this

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle.  For more

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">information, please see products issued by your local weather

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Stewart

<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion   000 AXNT20 KNHC 101045 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">satellite imagery through 1019 UTC.   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   A broad low pressure area located over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Please also refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more information.   ...TROPICAL WAVES...   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 15N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near this feature from 05N-11N between 23W-26W.   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 16N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is seen at this time.   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 13N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 150 nm of the wave axis from 07N-11N. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely for the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Friday into Saturday.   A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 05N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the northern portion of this wave axis along the coast of the Dominican Republic, from 16N-19N between 69W-71W. There are also isolated thunderstorms seen within 90 nm of the wave axis.   A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 05N-17N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along the wave from 10N-18N.   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N17W to 08N24W to 08N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N40W to 08N48W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 08N49W to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 26W-35W. Showers are also seen within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W- 43W.   GULF OF MEXICO...   See the Special Features section above for more details on the low expected to move into the Gulf this week.   A mid-low level low and trough are confined to the northeast Gulf bringing enhanced convection across the area. The broad area of low pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle with a 1011 mb low analyzed near 29N85W with a trough extending from 30N86W to 26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 25N-30N between 83W- 91W. The strongest area of convection is coming off the central Louisiana coast N of 28N between 83W-92W. Weak surface ridging prevails in the western Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin.   Developing low pressure along the western Florida Panhandle may intensify into a tropical cyclone as it moves westward across the north central Gulf through Saturday.   CARIBBEAN SEA...   See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean.   Upper-level low centered over the northern Caribbean extending into the central basin, along with a deep plume of moisture, is enhancing scattered moderate convection near Cuba and Jamaica. This convection is seen from 16N-21N between 78W- 82W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the Dominican Republic from 17N-21N between 75W-82W. Showers are also seen moving across Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection continues across the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, enhanced by the monsoon trough, south of 13N between 77W-84W. Moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with moderate trades in the eastern basin, and light to gentle trades across the rest of the area.   High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A tropical wave from Panama to Cuba will weaken as it moves west of the area late today. Another tropical wave south of Hispaniola will also weaken as it moves into the western Caribbean through late week. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean late Thursday into early Friday and move through the central Caribbean Saturday and Sunday.   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   The broad area of low pressure in the NE Gulf along with a frontal boundary off the U.S. East coast is contributing scattered thunderstorms in the western Atlantic, mostly north of 27N and west of 74W. Additionally, the upper- level low contributing to convection over the Caribbean is also giving way to scattered moderate convection across the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, from 20N- 24N between 69W- 76W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic from 27N- 26N between 60W-64W likely due to enhanced moisture in the area as seen on TPW. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 27N57W.   Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through today over the offshore waters off northeast Florida due to developing low pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure dominating the region will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except north of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evening.   For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine   $$ AKR