<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 102059
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT2
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 2
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">associated with individual convective cells were noted in the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">center.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">followed by a westward motion on Friday. Afterwards, however, the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">bifurcation in NHC's most reliable track model guidance, the best
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and HCCA models.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72 hours.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">they have their hurricane plan in place.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">especially along and east of the track of the system.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 10/2100Z 28.1N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 11/0600Z 27.7N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 11/1800Z 27.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 12/0600Z 27.6N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 12/1800Z 28.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 13/1800Z 29.3N 92.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 14/1800Z 31.9N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 15/1800Z 34.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Weather Outlook Text<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Weather Outlook
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">200 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">less than 200 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">River.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Stewart
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NNNN