Freeport

000

WTNT42 KNHC 120835

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019

400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

 

Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone

on satellite imagery at this time.  The cloud pattern consists of a

cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and

the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center.

Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force

winds occurring in the eastern semicircle.  An Air Force plane

sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level

winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial

intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance

plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours.

 

Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius,

and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC

intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a

hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall

in about 24 hours.  Most of the models show modest strengthening

despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air.

After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated.

 

The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward

the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the

average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger

circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward

the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level

ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC

forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the

middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model

consensus.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation

along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm

Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is

expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in

these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

 

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy

rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland

through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early

next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become

increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially

along and east of the track of the system.

 

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of

Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.  Residents in

these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as

tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area

by Friday morning.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  12/0900Z 28.1N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

12H  12/1800Z 28.4N  90.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

24H  13/0600Z 29.1N  91.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

36H  13/1800Z 30.0N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

48H  14/0600Z 31.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

72H  15/0600Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

96H  16/0600Z 36.5N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  17/0600Z 39.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Avila

  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory

<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">919 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT32 KNHC 121145 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCPAT2 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">BULLETIN <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">700 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">---------------------------------------------- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">LOCATION...28.2N 90.3W <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WATCHES AND WARNINGS <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">-------------------- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">None. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Orleans <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Intracoastal City to Cameron <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Lake Pontchartrain <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Intracoastal City to Cameron <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">border <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and property should be rushed to completion. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.  For a <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">located within these areas should take all necessary actions to <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">protect life and property from rising water and the potential for <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">instructions from local officials. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">dangerous. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">For storm information specific to your area, including possible <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">local National Weather Service forecast office. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">---------------------- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.3 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A track toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southeastern coast of Louisiana tonight or Saturday, and then move <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">inland over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">(85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is expected during <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane tonight or <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to the east of the center.  An United States Geological Survey <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">station near Point a la Hache, Louisiana recently reported sustained <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds of 38 mph. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">data is 998 mb (29.47 inches). <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">---------------------- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">information specific to your area, please see products issued by <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">your local National Weather Service forecast office. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">RAINFALL:  Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  Over the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">inches. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">area tonight or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected to begin later today.  Hurricane conditions are possible <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Storm Warning area starting early today, with tropical storm <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">by tonight or Saturday. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">coast. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NEXT ADVISORY <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">------------- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Beven

U.S. Rainfall QPF (from WOC)