<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241042
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on
0600 UTC surface analysis and
<span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 mb low is located northwest of Miami, Florida near
26N81W at 24/0900 UTC. A surface trough extends from 23N82W to
30N81W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted
across the western Atlantic and the eastern Gulf from 25N- 30N
between 79W- 84W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring
along and north of the Bahamas from 24N-31N between 72W- 79W.
Significant development of the low is unlikely today while it
drifts northward over the southern Florida peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear conducive to support gradual
development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and
central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. There is a high chance of development over the next 48
hours.
A 1012 mb low is located near 10N46W at 24/0900 UTC. The showers
and thunderstorms associated with this small area of low pressure,
located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands, are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Conditions appear less favorable for development when the low
reaches the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the
middle of next week. There is a medium chance of development over
the next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W S of 21N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W S of 19N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are seen moving across the Lesser
Antilles, within 100 nm of this wave.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 20N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. An area of scattered moderate convection is seen
moving off the central Cuban coast toward the Cayman Islands near
the northern portion of this wave, from 19N-21N between 78W-80W.
This wave is also enhancing convection across the SW Caribbean
and across Panama, from 08N-11N between 77W-80W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 10N26W to 08N51W. The ITCZ extends from 07N55W to the coast of
Guyana near 06N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 08N-12N between 23W-37W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A mid-level low continues to linger over the western Gulf of
Mexico near 29N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
across the western Gulf from 24N-30N between 94W- 97W. The low
mentioned in the Special Features section is causing showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf-- see above for more
details. The rest of the basin is under surface ridging anchored
by a 1015 mb high near 28N87W. The latest scatterometer data
depicts light anti- cyclonic wind over most of the basin with
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the western basin.
Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are also seen north of the
Yucatan and in the west-central Gulf.
Weak high pressure will remain centered over the NE Gulf through
Tuesday. Moderate to fresh SSE winds will continue across the
waters west of 90W through the period, while mainly light to
gentle winds continue east of 90W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The strong convection moving across the Windward Passage has
begun to weaken, albeit still moving along the SE Cuban coast from
19N-20N between 74W-77W. Scattered showers are moving across the
rest of the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, relatively dry air is
inhibiting convection. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong trade winds north of NW Venezuela and N Colombia. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are seen the central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are observed across the rest
of the basin.
Fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean will
gradually increase in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday. An area of low
pressure currently near 10N46W will approach the Windward Islands
by the middle of next week. This system has a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features above for more information on the low over
South Florida.
A surface trough is reflected from a mid-level disturbance moving
across the central Atlantic, analyzed from 23N62W to 29N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near this trough from 25N-30N between
52W-62W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the mid-level
disturbance from 28N-33N between 60W-67W. Surface ridging covers
the rest of the basin from a 1023 mb near 33N51W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeast winds
across the W Atlantic.
A weak area of low pressure just S of Lake Okeechobee Florida
will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the waters W of 72W the next few days. The low is forecast to move
NNE over Florida today, then back offshore near the coast of east
central Florida tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds will continue across the area.
$$
AKR
Tropical Weather Outlook Text<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Weather Outlook
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">800 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">peninsula. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">States coast.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">afternoon could be postponed if the center of the low remains
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">inland. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Sunday.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions appear
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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<span-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Beven