<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT45 KNHC 260849
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT5
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 8
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian are often challenging to predict.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">track forecast has been nudged in that direction.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">advice from local government officials and products from their
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">local meteorological service for additional information.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">6 inches.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 26/0900Z 11.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Cangialosi
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 260847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019
...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 56.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as
early as later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and
and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica
through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
in Barbados and the Windward Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory
000
WTNT25 KNHC 260847
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA
SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED AS
EARLY AS LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 56.4W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 56.4W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.8W
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 56.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI