Freeport

 

<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion

 

 

000

WTNT45 KNHC 020852

TCDAT5

 

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  36

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

 

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely

well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops.  The

diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and

radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology

radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also

continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow.  The initial

intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between

earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates

from TAFB and SAB.  This lowering of intensity is consistent with

the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days,

Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will

likely result in weakening.  However it is anticipated that the

system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several

days.  The official intensity forecast lies between the

statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model

consensus.

 

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a

standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion

of 270/1 kt.  The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the

hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed.

Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the

ridge will develop along 75W-80W.  This would likely cause Dorian to

move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness.

Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate

northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric

trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous

one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA.  Although

the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the

Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to

deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will

continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.

Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the

eye.

 

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds

are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through

mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only

a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring

the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast.  Residents

should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

 

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous

storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North

Carolina later this week.  Residents in these areas should continue

to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by

local emergency officials.

 

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,

are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal

sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the

United States into Friday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  02/0900Z 26.6N  78.2W  145 KT 165 MPH

12H  02/1800Z 26.7N  78.7W  140 KT 160 MPH

24H  03/0600Z 26.9N  79.0W  130 KT 150 MPH

36H  03/1800Z 27.6N  79.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

48H  04/0600Z 28.7N  80.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

72H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

96H  06/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  07/0600Z 38.5N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch

<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT25 KNHC 020850 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCMAT5 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND ELEUTHERA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FOR ANDROS ISLAND...IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* LAKE OKEECHOBEE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FOR A <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">DANGEROUS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  78.2W AT 02/0900Z <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   1 KT <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  916 MB <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  25SW  25NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">34 KT.......120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 210NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  78.2W AT 02/0900Z <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  78.1W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.7N  78.7W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  25NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N  79.0W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N  79.5W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N  80.0W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N  79.8W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW  90NW. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N  70.0W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N  78.2W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECASTER PASCH

<span-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black;background:#C5E5F5">US East Coast/Gulf of Mexico

 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY

<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Outlook <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">today. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">depression could form during the next few days while the low moves <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this system is possible during the next few days while the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">west-northwestward. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Zelinsky