US EAST COAST / GULF OF MEXICO - IR
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">000
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT45 KNHC 040256
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT5
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 43
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the tightly packed guidance envelope.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">advice given by local emergency officials.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">beginning Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of flash flooding
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 04/0300Z 28.4N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 04/1200Z 29.4N 79.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 06/0000Z 33.3N 78.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 07/0000Z 37.1N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 08/0000Z 43.3N 62.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">120H 09/0000Z 51.5N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Cangialosi
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TROPICAL STORM FERNAND
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">U.S. Rainfall QPF (from WPC)
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 040233
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCDAT2
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane investigated Fernand this evening and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">found that the circulation of the cyclone was better organized
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with a central pressure of 1000 mb. The plane also measured a peak
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">flight level wind of 51 kt, and numerous SFMR observations of around
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">45 kt. This is the intensity assigned to Fernand in this advisory.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">These strong winds were confined to the western semicircle of the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">storm and very close to the coast of Mexico. The satellite
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">presentation has also improved during the past few hours, but due to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">shear, the center is still located on the southeastern edge of an
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">area of very deep convection.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Fernand does not have too much room for strengthening since its
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">circulation will soon be interacting with the high terrain of
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">eastern Mexico. However, in the next 12 to 18 hours before the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">center moves inland, some intensification could occur as indicated
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in the official NHC forecast. Once Fernand moves inland, it will
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">weaken rapidly.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The cyclone is moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 3 kt.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Fernand is trapped south of a strong mid-level ridge over the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southwestern United States, and this pattern should slowly steer the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">cyclone on a west-to west-northwest track for the next day or so.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">This track is consistent with the previous one, and it is consistent
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with the solution of the global models.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">areas of Mexico.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Avila
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT43 KNHC 040240
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019
A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was
farther south than previously thought, and that the strongest winds
of 30 kt are within a band of deep convection over the northern
semicircle. Based on these data and a blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates, 30 kt will be the initial intensity
for this advisory.
The depression will be in a marginally favorable environment of 10
to 15 kt of shear and over SSTs just over 26C for the next few days.
Some slight strengthening could occur during this time frame, and it
is reflected in the official forecast, bringing the intensity to 50
kt by Thursday night. After that time, the cyclone will begin to
move over warmer waters, but into a drier environment with some
increase in the wind shear. It is difficult to know at this point in
time as to what effect these conflicting conditions may have on the
cyclone's intensity. Therefore, beyond 48 hours the intensity is
held in a steady state. The official intensity forecast is just a
tad higher than the previous one, and is very near the various
intensity consensus models.
The initial motion is 320/07 kt. A general northwestward motion is
expected through the forecast period on the eastern periphery of a
subtropical ridge extending from Africa to the eastern Atlantic. An
increase in forward motion is expected late this week, as the
cyclone gets caught in the southeast flow between the ridge to its
east and a developing mid- to upper-level low to the west. The
official forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous one
through 72 hours due to the adjustment of the initial position.
Thereafter the track forecast is little changed and close to the
consensus aid TVCX.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 19.1N 32.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.7N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.1N 39.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 31.7N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 35.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto