HURRICANE DORIAN
HURRICANE DORIAN
HURRICANE DORIAN
377
WTNT45 KNHC 040855
TCDAT5
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019
NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become
broad and less well-defined over the past several hours. The
hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection
that are causing winds of at least tropical storm force along
portions of the northeast coast of Florida. Although the central
pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane
Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current
intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the
flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft. Dorian will be
traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some
increase in vertical shear after 24 hours. The official intensity
forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then
shows a very slow weakening thereafter. This is close to the latest
statistical-dynamical guidance. The system is expected to maintain
close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North
Carolina Outer Banks.
Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or
330/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast
reasoning. Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to
gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the
subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a
broad mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track remains
close to the corrected multi-model consensus.
Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and
life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.
2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.
3. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast
today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region
on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday
across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern
North Carolina.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 29.2N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND
000
WTNT42 KNHC 040832
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019
An ASCAT-C scatterometer pass around 0310 UTC indicated a few wind
vectors of 38-40 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.
Allowing for some under sampling by the instrument, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt. The overall convective pattern in radar
and satellite imagery has changed little over the past 6 hours.
Fernand's motion is slowly westward at 270/05 kt. Fernand is
expected to be steered westward this morning by a broad deep-layer
ridge that extends across the entire southern United States,
followed by a west-northwestward motion tonight and Thursday. As a
result, the cyclone is forecast to move inland over northeastern
Mexico by this evening, and then dissipate quickly over the rugged
terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies
down the middle of track guidance envelope.
Fernand has been experiencing moderate easterly to southeasterly
vertical wind shear and ingesting dry air in the southeastern
semicircle. These unfavorable conditions are forecast to continue
until landfall occurs in about 12 hours, resulting in little if any
additional strengthening.
The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar
in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that up to 10 inches of
rainfall may have already occurred across portions of northeastern
Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 23.1N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT43 KNHC 040854
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCDAT3
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Stewart
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL STORM # 1
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT43 KNHC 040854
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCDAT3
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Stewart