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SubjectDatePriority
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/31/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/30/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/29/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/28/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/27/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/26/2019 Normal
NOAA / National Weather Service Tropical Weather - Western Gulf of Mexico // Tropical Cyclone is Forming 10/25/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/25/2019 Normal
NOAA Tropical Weather // Southwest Gulf of Mexico 10/25/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/24/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/23/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/22/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/21/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/20/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/19/2019 Normal
NOAA Tropical Storm Nestor 10/18/2019 Normal
NOAA // Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen10/18/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/18/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/17/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/16/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/15/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/14/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/13/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/12/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/11/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/10/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/09/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/08/2019 Normal
FW: Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/07/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/06/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/04/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/03/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/02/2019 Normal
Houston, Galveston, Texas City, & Freeport, TX - Daily Port Update 10/01/2019 Normal

 Daily Port Update

Subject:NOAA // Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
Date:Friday, October 18, 2019
Priority:Normal
Notice:

<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000

WTNT41 KNHC 180833

TCDAT1

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019

400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

 

Although the convection associated with the disturbance has

increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a

well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls

of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre.  Most of the global

models forecast that the system will become better organized

later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a

tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this

morning.  A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in

a few hours.

 

The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which

is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level

diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening

during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland.

However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models

resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a

subtropical cyclone.  After landfall, the cyclone is expected to

become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves

northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast.  By day 5, the low is

forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic.

 

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly

uncertain.  The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees

at 12 kt.  The system should accelerate later today and continue

toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough.

Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC

forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.

 

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the

northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds,

locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.  Similar

impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the

southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of

up to 5 feet above ground level beginning today along the Florida

Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge

Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice

given by local officials.

 

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by later today along

portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm

warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity

of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east

of the center.

 

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern

Gulf Coast and southeastern United States coast from today through

Saturday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the

risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where

heavier rainfall is possible.

 

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will

be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS

offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical

characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  18/0900Z 24.3N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

12H  18/1800Z 26.8N  89.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

24H  19/0600Z 29.0N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

36H  19/1800Z 31.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

48H  20/0600Z 33.5N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H  21/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H  22/0600Z 37.5N  69.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Avila

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

As Agents Only

16651 Ronan

Houston, TX 77060
Main: 281-582-9200  DO Tel: 281-582-1231  Fax: 281-582-9222  Mbl: 281-924-2146
hou@moranshipping.com   blain@moranshipping.com   www.moranshipping.com

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Notice posted on Friday, October 18, 2019

Disclaimer
For quality assurance purposes please note well that while the above information is regularly vetted for accuracy it is not intended to replace the local knowledge or expertise pertaining to port conditions of our marine operations personnel. Port précis should always be verified by contacting the corresponding marine department of a particular location for the most up-to-date information.