<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">U.S. Rainfall QPF (from WPC)
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">WTNT41 KNHC 190235
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">TCDAT1
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 7
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters are investigating Nestor
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">this evening, and they have found that the minimum pressure
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">has dropped to 996 mb, 3 mb lower than this afternoon, but they have
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">not found higher winds yet. Based on preliminary data from both
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">aircraft, the initial wind speed remains 50 kt. The Air Force also
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">reported that there is a lot of lightning occurring in the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">thunderstorms on Nestor's east side. Nestor remains a lopsided
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tropical storm, with very intense deep convection extending well to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the east of the center with only small areas of convection near and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to the west of the center. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">strong westerly wind shear associated with a nearby shortwave
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">trough. Doppler radar imagery indicates that rain bands are now
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">spreading inland over much of the eastern portions of the Gulf
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coast, and surface observations show the winds increasing near the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">coast, but they are still not quite at tropical storm strength.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Water vapor satellite images show that the shortwave trough is
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">almost co-located with Nestor, which is likely part of the reason
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">why the minimum pressure has fallen. Even though it is not
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">explicitly reflected in the forecast, Nestor could strengthen a
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">little before the storm makes landfall. However, significant
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">intensification seems unlikely as the shortwave trough is expected
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">to bypass the cyclone soon, leaving the storm in a less favorable
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">environment of upper-level confluence and drier air. After landfall,
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">weakening is forecast and the models suggest that Nestor should lose
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">its tropical characteristics on Saturday when it tracks across the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">southeast U.S. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The tropical storm is moving quickly northeastward at about 20 kt.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The models are in good agreement that this general motion should
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">continue for the next couple of days, taking the center of the storm
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning and across
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later Saturday and Sunday.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">The weakening system is expected to slow down and turn eastward over
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">the western Atlantic early next week before it merges with a cold
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">front. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">models.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Given the structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">through Saturday.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Key Messages:
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">officials.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast into early Sunday
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">morning.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">INIT 19/0300Z 28.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">12H 19/1200Z 30.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">24H 20/0000Z 32.7N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">36H 20/1200Z 34.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">48H 21/0000Z 36.5N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">72H 22/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">$$
<span-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black">Forecaster Cangialosi