NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Storm Cristobal
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">805 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
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Based on
0600 UTC surface analysis and
satellite imagery through
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 19.1N 92.3W at
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">03/0900 UTC. This position also is about 30 nm NNW of Ciudad del
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Carmen Mexico. Cristobal is moving southeastward at 3 knots. The
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the center, including in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate isolated strong is elsewhere from 22N southward between
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">90W and 95W. Movement: the storm is expected to move slowly
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southward or southeastward, as it remains within a larger
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">cyclonic gyre that is centered in eastern Mexico. This motion
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">should bring the center onshore to the coast of Mexico, in the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, later today. Cristobal is
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southeast through early Thursday. Increasing southerly flow
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">should allow the storm to begin moving northward in the central
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and northern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Additional heavy
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rainfall is expected in southern Mexico and northern Central
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, potentially leading to life-threatening flash floods
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and mudslides during the next few days. Please read the latest
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gyre circulation, that has been bringing heavy rainfall and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">severe flooding to parts of Central America and southern Mexico
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected through Saturday in parts of southern Mexico from the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern sections of
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts of Belize,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it is likely
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">that these areas also may receive additional heavy rainfall. It
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is possible that the rainfall total for the entire event, from
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end up reaching
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the rains may
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">national meteorological service, for more details.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 18N
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate is on either side of the tropical wave, with either the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">monsoon trough or with the ITCZ.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 17N
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W and 03N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">from 30W to 47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">isolated strong is within 220 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">42W and 45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W. Isolated
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate covers the rest of the area from the monsoon trough to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">10N from the 28W tropical wave eastward, and within 300 nm to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the north of the ITCZ.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and widely scattered
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the rest of the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, except within 210 nm of the coast of Texas. The
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W, maximum sustained
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland today,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">weaken to a tropical depression, re-intensify to a tropical
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">storm on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through Sun night.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">heavy rainfall situation for Central America.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the SW corner of
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation:
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">70W westward, in the waters between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba;
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and from 15N northward from 82W westward.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level trough is
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">reaching eastern Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">locally strong is in the Mona Passage.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia,
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond northern
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Nicaragua, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate to isolated strong is to the south of a line that runs
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">from the NE corner of Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia near
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">11N75W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N between
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">72W and 75W.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico for several days. Expect widespread heavy rain showers
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds, and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">seas, are expected to continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Yucatan, through Saturday. Fresh trade winds are expected in
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN...
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W, to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">26N59W, to the central Bahamas near Andros Island.
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">nm to the SSE of the cold front from 66W eastward.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">28N20W, 27N30W, to 31N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The western Atlantic Ocean cold front will drift southward and
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">stall this morning, then slowly dissipate through tonight. High
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Saturday.
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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mt/dbm