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<span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">882 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AXNT20 KNHC 032324 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TWDAT <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2300 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2300 UTC. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal is weakening very slowly while moving over land near <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. It is centered near 18.3N 91.8W at <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">03/2100 UTC moving toward the SE or 135 degrees at 3 kt. A turn <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">toward the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast track, the center will move over eastern Mexico through <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Thursday. Then, the center of Cristobal is forecast to move back <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Estimated minimal central pressure <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds speed is 45 kt with gusts to <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">55 kt. Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Friday as it moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rounds of heavy rain. The rains could lead to additional life- <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mountainous terrain. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">www.hurricanes.gov for more details. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gyre circulation (i.e. CAG), that has been bringing heavy <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rainfall is expected through Fri night. As Cristobal interacts <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, abundant tropical <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moisture in a southwesterly flow will continue to impact SE <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico and northern Central America. Rounds of heavy rain are <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected in El Salvador, with additional 10-15 inches of rain, <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mainly from Thu afternoon through early Sat. Belize and Honduras <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. Rainfall in all of these areas <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read bulletins and forecasts issued by your local or <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">national meteorological service, for more details. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A tropical wave is near 30W, S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Convection is limited near the wave axis. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A second tropical wave is along 52W/53W, S of 17N, moving W at <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">10 to 15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some convective <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">activity over French Guiana and Suriname. The wave shows up <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">reasonably well in the TPW animation, and 700 mb streamline <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">analysis. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Guinea, Africa near 11N15W and continues to 10N30W. The ITCZ <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">extends 09N34W to 07N42W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong convection is from 05N to 07N between 15W and 22W. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal, and heavy rainfall across southern <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico. During the last 24 hours, ending at 8 am this morning, <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Weather Service in Mexico reported rainfall amounts of 328.9 <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mm (13 inches) in Campeche, followed by 222.4 mm (9 inches) in <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tabasco and 220.8 mm (9 inches) in Chiapas. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a 1018 mb high <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">pressure over the SE CONUS is producing an area of moderate to <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong easterly winds across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 25N <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with seas of 8-10 ft roughly between 87W and 95W. These marine <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">conditions will persist on Thu. As Cristobal moves back into the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf waters by Fri, winds and seas will continue to increase <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">across the Gulf region. Expect swells from Cristobal to begin <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">impacting the NW and north-central waters on Sat. After Cristobal <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moves inland in the general area of the north-central Gulf, moderate <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the region <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through Sun night. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">periphery of the Bermuda high and the remnants of a frontal <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">boundary is supporting shower and thunderstorms over most of the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Florida Peninsula. Another round of convection, including <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">possible heavy rain is forecast for South Florida on Thu, with <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the risk of urban flooding. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico for the next few days. Please, see the Special Features <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">section for more details. This is also forecast to produce <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">at least Sat. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong SE <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">As tropical cyclone Cristóbal moves back into the Gulf of Mexico <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">waters, the pressure gradient will tighten between Cristobal and <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Atlantic high pressure. As a result, strong southeast winds <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Yucatan Peninsula through Sat evening. Winds may reach gale <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">force in and near the Yucatan Channel Fri through most of Sat <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">along with building seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">continue over the central Caribbean through early Sat, then <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Mon. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce some convective <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">activity over Cuba. A band of showers and thunderstorms over the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SW Caribbean could be associated with northward movement of the <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">eastern Pacific monsoon trough into the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">prevail. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN... <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A couple of tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 25N60W to the central <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Bahamas. This front is forecast to slowly dissipate through <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">early Thu. High pressure north of the front will support moderate <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">before diminishing slightly Sun through Mon. Some convective <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">activity is associated with the front. Farther E, a cold front <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">crosses the Canary Islands and continues SW, then W along 24N30W <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to 28N42W. Patches of low level clouds are along the frontal <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">boundary. <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GR