Freeport

NOAA Hurricane   ///   Tropical Depression Cristobal

<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">930 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AXNT20 KNHC 051013 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TWDAT <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">613 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">0930 UTC. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is near 18.8N 90.1W at <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">05/0900 UTC. This position is inland, about 80 nm/130 km SSE of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Campeche, Mexico. Cristobal is moving NNE, 20 degrees, at 6 kt. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">winds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">numerous strong convection is noted within 180 nm of center in the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NE semicircle, from northern Belize across most of the Yucatan <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Peninsula. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">also located within 540 nm SE semicircle, including much of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Guatemala, southern Belize, Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">northwest Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">also extends within 600 nm NE quadrant, including western Cuba and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Damaging and deadly flooding <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">will continue to occur over portions of Mexico and Central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America. Storm total rainfall amounts over southern Guatemala, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">coastal Chiapas, and El Salvador may reach 35 inches. Widespread <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">life threatening flooding and mudslides may persist into the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">weekend. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">your local or national meteorological service, for more details. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal is expected to emerge into the waters of the southern <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico late today, then move north through the central and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The risk of tropical storm <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">force winds and dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Florida Panhandle will exist well in advance of when Cristobal's <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">center approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast late Sunday. It is likely <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">that storm surge and tropical storm watches will be issued for a <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">part of the U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico later today. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the U.S.A. coast of the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">American Gyre (CAG) circulation. Heavy rainfall and severe <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Mexico all of this week. Abundant tropical moisture in a <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">northern parts of Central America. Additional rainfall amounts of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">8 to 12 inches are forecast over southern Guatemala and coastal <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Chiapas, with 4 to 8 inches expected in Campeche, Quintana Roo, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan, and El Salvador. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">or national meteorological service, for more details. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A weak tropical wave is along 29W, from 17N southward, moving W at <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">10 kt. Little convection is associated with this wave. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A tropical wave is along 39N, from 16N south, moving W at 10 kt. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scattered moderate convection is located within 300 nm ahead of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this wave, S of 10N. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A tropical wave is along 59W, from 16N south, moving W at 10 kt. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">300 nm of either side of the wave axis S of 12N. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">near 10N14W, to 06N17W and 05N24W. The ITCZ is along 03N40W to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">05N46W to 08N50W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">thunderstorms are located along the ITCZ between 42W and 47W. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Scattered moderate showers are located between the equator and the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">monsoon trough from 10W to 20W. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Cristobal. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Elsewhere in the Gulf, scattered moderate showers exist over the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">eastern and northeastern Gulf, mainly within 210 nm offshore <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">coast of Florida. A surface ridge is along 28N80W in Florida, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">across the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico, into the upper <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Texas Gulf coast. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Cristobal is inland near 18.8N 90.1W 1000 mb <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">gusts 40 kt. Cristobal will remain inland and reach 20.1N 90.1W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this afternoon, move into the Gulf and strengthen to a tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">storm near 22.0N 90.3W Sat morning, then reach 23.8N 90.4W Sat <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">afternoon, 25.7N 90.3W Sun morning, 27.6N 90.4W Sun afternoon, and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">inland to 29.6N 91.2W Mon morning. Cristobal will weaken to a <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical depression while moving inland over Louisiana early Tue. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Once Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">be present across most of the Gulf waters through Mon night. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">heavy rainfall situation for Central America. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">near 08N74W, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, through <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">central Nicaragua, into central Honduras. Scattered showers and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">thunderstorms are located within about 180 nm offshore the coast <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Central America <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Otherwise, high pressure is dominating the Caribbean with <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">scattered moderate showers across the basin moving quickly west in <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">fresh to strong trades. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">American Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean into the weekend. Strong to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">near gale force SE winds and building seas will continue in the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat evening. Fresh <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through Sat night. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A dissipating stationary front is located from 31N50W to 25N60W to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">27N65W. The few showers that were associated with this front have <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">diminished. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A weak surface trough from 32N20W to 25N35W is producing little in <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the way of precipitation this morning. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The stationary front will evolve into a surface trough today, and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">dissipate tonight. Abundant moisture pouring NE from the Central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">American Gyre and Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">portions of Florida and the NW Bahamas. These showers will persist <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to early next week as Cristobal moves towards the north- central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure north of the front will <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">support fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola and Puerto <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Rico, through the weekend. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">KONARIK