NOAA Hurricane // Tropical Storm Cristobal
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">103 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
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Based on
1200 UTC surface analysis and
satellite imagery through
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1220 UTC.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 23.9N 90.2W at
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">06/1200 UTC. Cristobal is morning N, or 360 degrees, at 12 knots.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal is about 365 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">maximum sustained winds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. A
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">broad band of strong thunderstorms is located within 360 nm E of
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the center, as well as extending N to S along 87W from the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">north central Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. Across all of the NE
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf and north central Gulf to the E of 88W, scattered moderate
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to isolated strong convection exists. Scattered moderate
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">convection is also ongoing across the NE Gulf and FL peninsula.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal should continue moving northward at a similar pace as
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">it remains between a western Atlantic ridge and western Gulf
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">trough. This will bring Cristobal over the central Gulf today and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">approach the northern Gulf coast Sunday while slowly
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strengthening. Once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday, weakening
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">will begin.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring over
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">parts of Mexico and Central America in association with
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Cristobal. The storm is likely to produce additional rainfall
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">amounts of 1 to 3 inches in Quintana Roo and Yucatan, causing
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">storm totals to approach 25 inches. It is possible that this
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">your local or national meteorological service, for more details.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of up to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">12 inches, are forecast across portions of the eastern and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley through early
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">next week. Flash flooding as well as flooding on streams and
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">rivers may result.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Central American Gyre remains in southern Mexico and northern
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Central America. The broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">trough in Central America, and associated deep convective
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">precipitation usually is found to the south of the trough.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Expect additional heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Mexico
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and northern Central America through tonight. The heaviest
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">additional rainfall is expected in the southeastern Mexican
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, and in parts of
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Guatemala and Belize. It is possible that the rainfall may cause
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">national meteorological service, for more details.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 16N southward,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists on
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">either side of the tropical wave to about 180 nm.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 18N southward,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists about
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">200 nm in the vicinity of this wave.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 17N southward,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving west 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convection is
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">apparent with this tropical wave.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Leone near 08N13W to 05N40W. The ITCZ continues from 05N40W to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">00N49W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">02N to 08N between 12W and 26W. Scattered showers exists
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">elsewhere along the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 40W and 50W.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the central Gulf
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">through late Sunday, then move ashore in Louisiana. Thereafter,
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">it will weaken and move away from the area. Once Cristobal moves
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">inland, wind and seas will gradually subside. Moderate to fresh
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">southerly flow will be present across most of the north-central
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf waters through late Tue.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA...
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">heavy rainfall event that is occurring in Central America.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The tail end of Tropical Storm Cristobal extends into the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan Channel in the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong convection extends from 18N86W to 23N85W.
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">09N75W, into the SW Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua from SE to
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NW. Scattered moderate convection exists within 100 nm of the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Panama and Nicaragua coast.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Elsewhere in the Caribbean, high pressure is keeping mainly dry
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">conditions in place, with some scattered tradewind showers mainly
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">w of 70W.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America and southern Mexico for several days, producing
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">widespread showers and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean through
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Sunday. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds and seas of 10
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to 15 ft in the NW Caribbean will gradually diminish into
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">central Caribbean through tonight. Otherwise, a pair of tropical
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">waves will cross mainly the southern Caribbean through early next
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">week, bringing a few additional showers and thunderstorms.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN...
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">from 29N53W to 23N57W. Scattered showers are observed in the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">vicinity of the trough. A second trough is also noted to the west
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">near 29N63W to 24N66W with scattered showers extending about 100
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">nm on either side of the trough.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">showers and thunderstorms near Florida and to the north of the
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Bahamas through the weekend. Early next week, a weak cold front
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">will approach the northern waters before stalling and dissipating
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">by the middle of the week. Otherwise, high pressure will support
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">fresh trade winds, highest to the north of Hispaniola this
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">weekend.
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<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$
<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MMT