Freeport

289 AXNT20 KNHC 071750 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 28.7N 90.0W at 07/1500 UTC, or 78 nm S of New Orleans Louisiana, move N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm of the eastern semicircle, and within 120 nm of the western semicircle. A band of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the eastern Gulf and Florida, east of 84W. Tropical storm force winds extend 180 nm mostly east of the center. Seas of 12 ft or greater are located within 330 nm E semicircle, 180 nm SW quadrant, and 210 nm NW quadrant with seas to 22 ft over portions of the central Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is expected to continue moving north today, then gradually turn to the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/<span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/<span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/<span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.   ...TROPICAL WAVES...   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave as emerged off Africa and is located along 21N south of 14N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located within about 180 nm behind this wave.   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W south of 15N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.   An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W south of 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis, south of 11N.   A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W south of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 04N30W to 04N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N43W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is located within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ.   GULF OF MEXICO...   Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Cristobal.   Cristobal will move inland to near 30.2N 90.5W this evening,  and continue inland weakening to a tropical depression over the Louisiana/Arkansas near 32.6N 91.6W Mon morning, and move farther inland to Arkansas near 35.2N 92.2W Mon evening. Winds and seas will begin to subside late tonight through Mon night over the north-central gulf waters. Weak Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area Mon night through Thu night.   CARIBBEAN SEA...   Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, W Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and E Honduras. Fresh trades continue over much of the central and western Caribbean. Seas range 6 to 8 ft across most of the basin.   Fresh southeast winds in the Yucatan Channel will continue to diminish this morning as Tropical Storm Cristobal moves farther from the area. Relatively weak high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Tue, then mainly moderate winds through Thu night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the far northwestern Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize will continue to lift northward to the SE Gulf of Mexico through this afternoon.   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   Broad high pressure is dominating much of the central and western Atlantic today. There is a weak surface trough from 20N to 30N along 55W, where scattered showers have developed. Generally moderate trades prevail with seas averaging 5 to 7 ft.   Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to track northward toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast this afternoon as relatively weak high is present east of Florida. Widespread areas of rain along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in between this two features, including the waters north of the Bahamas will gradually decrease through tonight. A cold front will push south of Bermuda tonight, then move eastward to northeast and east of the Bahamas through Tue. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong west to southwest winds are possible, mainly north of 27N and east of 70W through Mon. High pressure will build southward across the western part of the area Mon night through Thu night. Weak low pressure may form early in the week to the southeast or east of Bermuda along this frontal boundary.   $$ Formosa