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<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black;background:#C5E5F5">Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM   Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020   For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:   1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is expected to cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.   2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical depression appears to be forming.  If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system this afternoon.  Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development of the system by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.   Forecaster Beven <span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion   059 AXNT20 KNHC 211822 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT TUE Jul 21 2020   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.     Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and <span-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#003399">satellite imagery through 1730 UTC.   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   As of 1500 UTC, satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate the low pressure system located near 09N39W continues to get better organized. Showers and thunderstorms extend 260 nm on the east semicircle and 180 to the west semicircle. The low has high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hrs while it moves westward at 10 kt. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today. Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development by the weekend. This wave has a high chance of  tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.   Refer to the latest  NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.   ...TROPICAL WAVES...   The axis of a tropical wave moving off Africa is along 16W south of 20N. Broad area of scattered moderate convection extends 200 nm west of the tropical wave and along the coast of Africa.    The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, south of 18N, moving west at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave, and is discussed in the special features section above. The tropical wave continues to progress westward ahead of the low pressure. Most of the moderate convection remains near the low but scattered showers are observed along the wave axis and south of 08N, near the ITCZ. The wave will continue to move further away from the surface low over the next few days. With high pressure strengthening over the subtropics, the steering flow will increase, and help the wave to increase its westward motion to around 20 to 25 kt within the next 24 to 48 hours.   The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 120 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 10N between 53W-57W.   The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm E of the wave axis south of the U.S. Virgin Islands, over Puerto Rico and adjacent coastal waters.   The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 24N across Panama and into the eastern north Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 300 nm E of the Wave. A weak surface low is noted to the west of the wave near 24N83W. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours as the northern portion of the wave moves west across the Gulf of Mexico. The southern portion of the wave and the proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate to strong convection in the far SW Caribbean from the coast of Nicaragua south into Panama.   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N44W to 07N53W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near the coast of Brazil from 08N57W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and low pressure described above, scattered moderate convection is noted near both boundaries. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is near the coast of Africa east of 23W. This is ahead of the next tropical wave which is moving off the coast of Africa.   GULF OF MEXICO   The northern extent of the  tropical wave over the NW Caribbean is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms west of Jamaica, over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday.   A surface trough is moving inland over Texas from the NW Gulf. Scattered moderate convection are north of 28N between 93W and 96W, including over the coast between south-central Louisiana and Galveston Bay. Surface trough is observed over the Bay of Campeche with no significant convection in the region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere.   A weak low pressure has developed over the SE Gulf near the northern end of a tropical wave. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. Increasing winds and seas are expected in association with this system.   CARIBBEAN SEA...   Please see above for more on an active tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean. The tropical wave is helping produce active weather south of Cuba.   Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, fresh winds prevail over the north and northwest Caribbean,  moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean, and light to gentle winds prevail over the west and southwest Caribbean.   The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low  pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds and seas over the NE Caribbean toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.   ATLANTIC OCEAN...   The tropical wave moving across South Florida and the Florida Straits is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 23N, between 74W and the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh with isolated strong winds are noted across the area from 23N-24N between 65W and the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh cover most of the basin south of 26N as 1025 mb high pressure extends across the basin. Two additional troughs are noted, one from 27N61W to 31N56W and a second trough from 28N53W to 32N48W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of both troughs.   The ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally  strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.   $$ MMT

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

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