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<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">442 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AXNT20 KNHC 221004 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TWDAT <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">604 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1000 UTC. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...SPECIAL FEATURES... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 10.0N 42.4W at <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">22/0900 UTC or 1120 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">07N to 12N between 41W and 44W. TD Seven is forecast to continue <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">on a westward motion, and reach tropical storm intensity today. On <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the westward track, the system will move into the offshore <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forecast zones east of the Windward Islands Friday, and enter the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">eastern Caribbean Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, from 20N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted from 13N to 20N between 20W and 27W. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W, from 19N southward. With <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">convection is noted within 90 nm west of the wave axis from 07N to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">09N. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, from 18N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within 90 nm east of the wave axis. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within 60 nm of the wave axis from 20N to 22N, and within 60 nm <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">east of the wave axis from 14N to 17N. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, from 23N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Low pressure has developed in <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">association with this wave, and is currently centered in the central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">over the eastern Gulf south of 26N in association to this system. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">There is currently a low probability that this low will develop <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">into tropical cyclone over the next 2 days, and a medium <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">further information. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough extends from 15N16W to 12N27W to 12N36W. The <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 09N59W. Aside from convection noted <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">convection is noted within 360 NM south of the monsoon trough <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 21W and 34W. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 25.5N87W. Scattered moderate <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">south of 26N in association to this system. Fresh to strong winds <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">prevail over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">elsewhere. The low will continue to shift WNW across the Central <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf today, and into the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday. This low is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">being monitored for possible tropical cyclone formation, with a <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">low probability of genesis over the next two days, and a medium <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">probability over the next five days. Fresh to strong winds are <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">expected in association with this system the next couple of days. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Tropical Depression <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Seven is centered east of the Windward Islands near 10.0N 42.4W, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and is moving WNW at 10 kt. TD Seven is forecast to continue on a <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">westward motion, and reach tropical storm intensity today. On the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">westward track, the system is forecast to move into the eastern <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Caribbean Saturday. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Please see above for more on Tropical Depression Seven. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Active convection continues west of the Bahamas as tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moisture continues to follow a tropical wave that is in the Gulf <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">33N40W, with associated ridge extending westward roughly along <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">32N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis. The <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">pressure gradient between the high pressure center and TD Seven is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">supporting fresh to locally strong winds generally over the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">waters south of 25N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds are <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">also noted within 60 NM north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, gentle to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate winds prevail. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">continues to build across the western Atlantic. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AL

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

As Agents Only

16651 Ronan

Houston, TX 77060
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