Freeport

NOAA Hurricane

USCG Houston MSU // MSIB 22-20 regarding Tropical Disturbance # 7

<span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">101 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">AXNT20 KNHC 222206 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TWDAT <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">605 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">2130 UTC. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SPECIAL FEATURES... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.9N 45.0W at 22/2100 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">UTC or 960 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12 <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 43W and 46W. Gonzalo is forecast to continue moving west, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">at a gradually faster pace, through the end of the week, before it <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">may begin to curve to the WNW. On this track, the system will <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">move into the offshore forecast zones east of the Windward Islands <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean Saturday. Strengthening <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is forecast, and Gonzalo is likely to become a hurricane by Thu <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">for more details. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Low pressure has developed in the Central Gulf of Mexico near <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">25N89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted over the eastern Gulf south of 22N extending along the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Yucatan Channel in association to this system. Conditions are <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">favorable to this low to develop further, and a tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">depression is likely to form in the next day or two as the system <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moves WNW at 10 mph. This low has a high chance of tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">formation by Fri. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Weather Outlook for further information. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...TROPICAL WAVES... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, from 20N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted from 05N to 09N between 22W and 31W. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward. With <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm on the east side of the wave <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">axis from 06N to 09N. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 18N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the wave axis. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward, <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 16N to 22N. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 092N30W to 10N37W. The <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 07N58W. Aside from convection noted <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">between 28W and 37W. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">GULF OF MEXICO <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 25.7N87.9W. Scattered moderate <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 26N in association to this system. Fresh to strong winds prevail <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">remainder of the basin is under fair benign weather. The low will <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">continue to shift WNW across the Central Gulf today, and into the NW <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gulf Thursday and Friday. This low is being monitored for possible <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">tropical cyclone formation, with a medium probability of genesis by <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">association with this system the next couple of days. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CARIBBEAN SEA... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean, with <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Newly formed Tropical Storm <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo is near 9.9N 43.6W 1000 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 12 kt. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Gonzalo will move to <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">10.0N 45.3W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.0N 47.7W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Thu morning, 10.1N 50.2W Thu evening, 10.4N 52.8W Fri morning, 10.7N <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">55.6W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 11.4N 58.8W <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Sat morning. Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it continues <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to move westward over the Caribbean through early Sun.  See Special <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Features section above for more information on Tropical storm <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ATLANTIC OCEAN... <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Active convection continues west of the Bahamas as tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moisture continues to follow a tropical wave that is in the Gulf <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">33N40W, with associated ridge extending westward roughly along <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">32N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis. The <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">pressure gradient between the high pressure center and Tropical <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Storm Gonzalo is supporting fresh to locally strong winds generally <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">over the waters south of 25N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">are also noted within 60 NM north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, gentle <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">to moderate winds prevail. <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">western Atlantic.  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">KONARIK  

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently

upgraded Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located over the central tropical

Atlantic.

 

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a broad low pressure area

has formed in association with the tropical wave over the central

Gulf of Mexico.  However, the accompanying shower and thunderstorm

activity is currently poorly organized.  Conditions appear conducive

for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to

form during the next day or two as the system moves west-

northwestward at about 10 mph.  Interests in the western Gulf of

Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or

warnings could be required for portions of the coasts of Texas and

Louisiana later today or tonight.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane

Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this

afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO

header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under

WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

 

Forecaster Beven

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

As Agents Only

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Houston, TX 77060
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