Freeport

Tropical Depression 8

 

<span-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 230840

TCDAT3

 

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020

400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

 

Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that

the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent

images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated

center.  The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in

agreement with surface data over the Gulf.  The cyclone should

remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next

day or so.  However, since the system is not well organized, only

slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. 

The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model

guidance at this time.

 

The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is

an uncertain 290/8 kt.  This is more or less consistent with

observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf.  A

continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or

so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some

building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone.  The

official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but

not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus.

 

 

Key Messages

 

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring

tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a

tropical storm watch has been issued.

 

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across

portions of Louisiana and southern Texas.  These rains could result

in flash flooding.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  23/0900Z 26.0N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

12H  23/1800Z 26.4N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

24H  24/0600Z 27.1N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

36H  24/1800Z 27.7N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

48H  25/0600Z 28.0N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

60H  25/1800Z 28.2N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...ON COAST

72H  26/0600Z 28.2N  98.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

96H  27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

120H  28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...INLAND

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

<span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT32 KNHC 231156 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCPAT2 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">BULLETIN <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 7A <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">800 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD... <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES... <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">---------------------------------------------- <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">LOCATION...9.8N 47.9W <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WATCHES AND WARNINGS <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">-------------------- <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Vincent and the Grenadines. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* Barbados <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">* St. Vincent and the Grenadines <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">this system.  Additional watches or warnings will likely be <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">required for some of these islands later today. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">For storm information specific to your area, please monitor <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">products issued by your national meteorological service. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">---------------------- <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 47.9 West. Gonzalo is <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A general westward <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">motion at a faster forward speed is expected today followed by a <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday.  On the forecast track, <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Friday and Saturday. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Maximum sustained are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo could become a hurricane later today. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">from the center. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">---------------------- <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">early Saturday. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">RAINFALL:  Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">night.  Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago.  Rainfall in Barbados and <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT42 KNHC. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NEXT ADVISORY <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">------------- <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Berg <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">000 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">WTNT42 KNHC 230842 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TCDAT2 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   7 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">A 0441 UTC ATMS/Soumi NPP microwave overpass revealed a <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">well-developed banding feature wrapping into the center from the <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">east semi-circle.  Cloud tops have once again cooled near the <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">surface center and subsequently, the Dvorak satellite intensity <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 (55 kt). <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">advisory. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">No major changes were made to the intensity forecast and there <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">still remains a relatively high degree of uncertainty beyond day 3 <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">while the cyclone moves through the Caribbean Sea.  Strengthening <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">is forecast through 48 hours as Gonzalo approaches the Islands and <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus, <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the IVCN multi-model guidance and the Decay SHIPS.  Beyond <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">mid-period, the forecast reflects a weakening trend in respect to <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">the European models solution, but at much more gradual rate.  It <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">and downward. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Gonzalo is moving <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">within low to mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone, and this <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">high pressure should steer the storm generally westward at a faster <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">forward speed for the next few days.  After that time, a motion <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">toward  the west-northwest is expected.  Two distinct <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">model clusters with differing forecast track solutions persist.  The <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">European models along with the Canadian indicate a weak cyclone <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">moving generally westward through the southern Windward Islands and <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">dissipating in 5 days or less.  The NCEP models, on the other hand, <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">show a much stronger tropical cyclone with a west-northwestward to <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">northwestward motion toward Hispaniola.  The NHC forecast basically <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">down the middle of these to model clusters and is very close to the <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">TVCA consensus aid.    <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">progress of this system.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Barbados. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Key Messages <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Hurricane conditions are possible on Barbados where a hurricane <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">watch has been issued.  Interests in the southern Windward Islands <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">by local officials. <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">INIT  23/0900Z 10.0N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 12H  23/1800Z 10.1N  48.7W   65 KT  75 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 24H  24/0600Z 10.4N  51.1W   70 KT  80 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 36H  24/1800Z 10.9N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 48H  25/0600Z 11.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 60H  25/1800Z 12.2N  60.1W   70 KT  80 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 72H  26/0600Z 13.0N  63.1W   65 KT  75 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black"> 96H  27/0600Z 14.8N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">120H  28/0600Z 16.5N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">  <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">$$ <span-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">Forecaster Roberts

Sincerely,

Bob Lain

Moran Shipping Agencies, Inc.

As Agents Only

16651 Ronan

Houston, TX 77060
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